UFC 256: Most Profitable and Probable Division Betting Trends
By
Dec 12, 2020
UFC Betting Trends by Division – UFC 256: One of the most probable trends on tonight’s UFC 256 card is in the Men’s Flyweight division, where the favorite has gone 19-5 for +5.43 units since the start of 2020.
Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA.
As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on, what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.
Trends Worth Tracking – UFC 256
Certain types of fights have a certain set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Some times it may even be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight. Whatever it may be, there is quantifiable data that we can analyze to find these trends, isolate and exploit them for profits. Let’s take a look at the betting card for UFC 256 and the most profitable trends, and probable outcomes for each division on the card.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Over | 37-16 | 69.8% | +11.81u | -231 |
| Coin Flip Favs | 9-6 | 60% | +0.89u | -110 |
| Since 2019 | – | – | – | – |
| Over | 73-40 | 64.6% | +10.99u | -182 |
| Coin Flip Dog | 22-20 | 52.4% | +3.46u | +100 |
UFC 256 Featherweight Bouts:
Chase Hooper (-333) vs Peter Barrett (+250)
Gavin Tucker (+160) vs Billy Quarantillo (-170)
Cub Swanson (+129) vs Daniel Pineda (-167)
UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Favs | 11-4-1 | 68.8% | +4.54u | -150 |
| Favorites | 36-16-1 | 67.9% | +2.24u | -212 |
| Since 2020 | – | – | – | – |
| Coin Flip D0gs | 3-2 | 60% | +1.35u | -110 |
| Favorites | 17-7 | 70.8% | +0.83u | -242 |
| Over | 18-6 | 75% | +0.53u | -300 |
UFC 256 Women’s Strawweight Bouts:
Tecia Torres (-600) vs Sam Hughes (+515)
Mackenzie Dern (-160) vs Virna Jandiroba (+155)
UFC Men’s Heavyweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Dogs | 18-9 | 66.7% | +9.67u | -110 |
| Dogs | 35-49 | 40.7% | +3.56u | +146 |
| Since 2020 | – | – | – | – |
| Over | 24-20 | 54.5% | +1.27u | -120 |
UFC 256 Men’s Heavyweight Bouts:
Junior dos Santos (+317) vs Ciryl Gane (-455)
UFC Men’s Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Under | 25-18 | 58.1% | +8.79u | -139 |
| Favorites | 31-12 | 72.1% | +0.89u | -258 |
UFC 256 Men’s Middleweight Bouts:
Kevin Holland (-104) vs Jacare Souza (-119)
UFC Men’s Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 5-2 | 62.5% | +2.77u | -110 |
| Dogs | 20-29 | 40.8% | +3.84u | +145 |
| Under | 25-24 | 51% | +5.61u | -104 |
UFC 256 Men’s Lightweight Bouts:
Renato Moicano (+112) vs Rafael Fiziev (-139)
Tony Ferguson (-164) vs Charles Oliveira (+131)
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Favs | 5-0 | 62.5% | +3.84u | -150 |
| Favorites | 19-5 | 79.2% | +5.43u | -381 |
| Under | 13-11 | 68.6% | +5.09u | -118 |
| Since 2020 | – | – | – | – |
| Under | 18-20 | 47.4% | +5.94u | +111 |
| Coin Flip Favs | 6-4 | 60% | +0.54u | -150 |
| Favorites | 25-12 | 65.8% | +1.2u | -192 |
UFC 256 Men’s Flyweight Bouts:
Deiveson Figueiredo (-357) vs. Brandon Moreno (+263)
FAQ: UFC 256
What is the main event for UFC 256
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno for the UFC Men’s Flyweight Championship is the main event for UFC 256. After multiple championship fights that were booked for the December 12th pay-per-view had to be cancelled for various reasons, UFC President Dana White announced at UFC 255 that Deiveson Figueiredo would defend his title for the second time in just three weeks against top contender Brandon Moreno. Figueiredo will be the first UFC champion in history to defend his title twice in less than a month.
The UFC 256 main event was initially booked to be between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. However, on October 5th it was announced that Usman would be forced to pull out from the bout, citing an undisclosed injury.
Another potential main event for UFC 256 was a UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship bout between Amanda Nunes and Megan Anderson, but on November 9th Nunes announced she was unable to compete at the event, due to an undisclosed injury.
The UFC Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan was to be defend his title against long standing top contender Aljamain Sterling in the co-main event for UFC 256, but after Usman and Nunes were forced to pull out, Yan was elevated to the main event. On November 22nd it was announced that Petr Yan was unable to compete at the December pay-per-view, due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19.
What times does UFC 256 start?
The UFC 256 preliminary card starts at 7pm EST, the main card starts at 10pm.