UFC Betting Trends

The most profitable UFC betting trend over the last year has been the Underdog in the Women’s Flyweight division, which went 15-18 for +15.05 units profit, while the ‘Over’ in Women’s Bantamweight has gone 20-1, and the Men’s flyweight favorite went 20-5-1. Let’s breakdown all the UFC betting trends by division over the last 13 months.

– Updated January 17, 2021

UFC Betting Trends: Favorites vs Dogs

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA

As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. Some MMA bettors don’t realize that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting predictions as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

UFC Betting Trends: Totals

UFC Trends Worth Tracking

Certain types of fights have a particular set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Sometimes, it may be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight.

UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights

The ‘coin flip’ favorite is a chalk favorite that is lined between -15o or better. The reason this is referred to as a ‘coin flip’ is that most of the time, these fights should be lined much closer to a pick’em, but the betting market has either pushed one fighter to become a ‘short favorite’ in that -150 to just short of pick’em range.

Sometimes, you will even see the bookmakers set the odds for these kinds of bouts with one of the fighters being juiced a little bit higher than they should be, simply as a projection against the public pouring in on that fighter; since a better number on that fighter likely exists somewhere else.

If one book originates a line with a little bit of juice on the favorite as protection, many other books will outright copy that line, which is why we see a ton of fights open at around pick’em, and then hover around that ‘coin flip’ range leading up to fight night. All in all, it is important to track which side ends up winning in these ‘coin flip’ scenarios, as it is a good way to predict how the betting market values a favorite or a dog in each division.

Favorites, dogs, overs, and under, whatever it may be. There is quantifiable historical data (UFC.com Results) that we can analyze to identify these trends, isolate them, and exploit them for profits.

UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

UFC Women’s Featherweight Division

UFC Lightweight Division

UFC Welterweight Division

UFC Middleweight Division

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

UFC Heavyweight Division