UFC Betting Trends

The most profitable UFC betting trend over the last year has been the Underdog in the Women’s Flyweight division, which went 15-18 for +15.05 units profit, while the ‘Over’ in Women’s Bantamweight has gone 20-1, and the Men’s flyweight favorite went 20-5-1. Let’s breakdown all the UFC betting trends by division over the last 13 months.

– Updated January 17, 2021

UFC Betting Trends: Favorites vs Dogs

Since 2020 Record Win % Buy Price
Favorites 298-157-5 64.8% -184
Dogs 157-298-5 34.1% +193

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA

UFC Betting Trends

As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. Some MMA bettors don’t realize that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting predictions as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

UFC Betting Trends: Totals

Since 2020 Record Win % Buy Price
Over 270-196-1 57.8% -137
Under 196-270-1 42% +138
Fight Goes Distance 234-232 50.2% -101
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 232-234 49.8% +101

UFC Trends Worth Tracking

Certain types of fights have a particular set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Sometimes, it may be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight.

UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 75-54 58.1% -0.23u -134
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 54-75 41.9% -15.74u +139

The ‘coin flip’ favorite is a chalk favorite that is lined between -15o or better. The reason this is referred to as a ‘coin flip’ is that most of the time, these fights should be lined much closer to a pick’em, but the betting market has either pushed one fighter to become a ‘short favorite’ in that -150 to just short of pick’em range.

Sometimes, you will even see the bookmakers set the odds for these kinds of bouts with one of the fighters being juiced a little bit higher than they should be, simply as a projection against the public pouring in on that fighter; since a better number on that fighter likely exists somewhere else.

If one book originates a line with a little bit of juice on the favorite as protection, many other books will outright copy that line, which is why we see a ton of fights open at around pick’em, and then hover around that ‘coin flip’ range leading up to fight night. All in all, it is important to track which side ends up winning in these ‘coin flip’ scenarios, as it is a good way to predict how the betting market values a favorite or a dog in each division.

Favorites, dogs, overs, and under, whatever it may be. There is quantifiable historical data (UFC.com Results) that we can analyze to identify these trends, isolate them, and exploit them for profits.

UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dog 3-2 60% +1.35u -110
Favorites 19-7 73.1% +1.61u -272
Over 19-7 73.1% +0.16u -272

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Fav 5-0 100% +3.84u -150
Favorites 20-5-1 77% +6.05u -335
Under 14-12 53.8% +5.11u -116

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Dogs 15-18 45.5% +15.05u +120
Under 14-19 42.4% +6.8u +136

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 27-26 50.9% +9.99u -104
‘Coin Flips’ Favs 11-6 64.7% +2.32u -150
Favorites 35-16-1 67.3% +1.23u -206

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 20-1 95.2% +7.14u -1983
Favorites 15-6 71.4% +1.41u -250
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 3-3 50% -0.89u -101

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 41-17 70.7% +14.29 -241
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 9-6 60% +0.89u -150
Favorites 36-21-1 62.1% -3.9 -164

UFC Women’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 10-7 58.8% +3.21u -143
Favorites 13-4 76.5% +0.49u -325
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 2-2 50% +0.04u -110

UFC Lightweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 7-5 58.3% +1.93u -110
Dogs 22-31 41.5% +6.87u +141
Under 27-26 50.9% +5.28u -104

UFC Welterweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 42-18 70% +14.48u -233
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 13-6-1 65% +3.57u -150
Favorites 39-20-1 65% +0.01 -186

UFC Middleweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 28-19 59.6% +10.15u -148
Favorites 33-14 70.2% +1.7u -236

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 7-1 87.5% +4.24u -150
Favorites 23-11-1 65.7% +0.53u -192
Under 18-17 51.4% +0.17u -106

UFC Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 8-5 61.5% +2.74u -233
Dog 20-26 43.5% +3.63u +125
Over 25-21 54.3% +1.23u -114