UFC Betting Trends by Division and Historical Results

UFC Betting Trends

UFC Betting Trends by Division and Historical Results: UFC bettors have already witnessed some insane outcomes to start 2021, and we’re just getting started. Not only have the underdogs been cashing for a +6.35% ROI after seven UFC events, but we have seen an incredibly high rate of fights reach the judge’s scorecards, with the ‘fight goes the distance’ prop cashing at a 59% rate, going 46-32 for +13.63 units profit to start 2021.

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division has cashed in 23 of the last 24 fights dating back to the beginning of 2020. A bettor who has backed the ‘Over’ in every fight at women’s 135lbs has cashed for +8.2 units. Meanwhile, the Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has been doing numbers over the last 14 months. The plus-money side has gone 16-23, cashing for +11.1 units profit since Jauary of 2020.

Let’s take a look at the best UFC betting trends worth tracking over the last few years.

– Updated March 1st, 2021

UFC Betting Trends: Favorites vs Dogs

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit
Favorites 46-30-1 60.3% -6.67u
Dogs 30-46-1 38.5% +4.95u

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA

Image result for Cory Sandhagen knockout Frankie EdgarAs sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. Some MMA bettors don’t realize that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting predictions as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

UFC Betting Trends: Totals

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit
Over 53-25 67.9% +9.34u
Under 25-53 32.1% -26
Fight Goes Distance 46-32 59% +13.63u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 32-46 41% -17.92u

UFC Trends Worth Tracking

Certain types of fights have a particular set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Sometimes, it may be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight.

UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 11-9 52.4% -0.21u
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 9-11 42.9% -1.77u

The ‘coin flip’ favorite is a chalk favorite that is lined between -15o or better. The reason this is referred to as a ‘coin flip’ is that most of the time, these fights should be lined much closer to a pick’em, but the betting market has either pushed one fighter to become a ‘short favorite’ in that -150 to just short of pick’em range.

Sometimes, you will even see the bookmakers set the odds for these kinds of bouts with one of the fighters being juiced a little bit higher than they should be, simply as a projection against the public pouring in on that fighter; since a better number on that fighter likely exists somewhere else.

If one book originates a line with a little bit of juice on the favorite as protection, many other books will outright copy that line, which is why we see a ton of fights open at around pick’em, and then hover around that ‘coin flip’ range leading up to fight night. All in all, it is important to track which side ends up winning in these ‘coin flip’ scenarios, as it is a good way to predict how the betting market values a favorite or a dog in each division.

Favorites, dogs, overs, and under, whatever it may be. There is quantifiable historical data (UFC.com Results) that we can analyze to identify these trends, isolate them, and exploit them for profits.

UFC 259 Odds Look Ahead

UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dog 4-2 66% +2.29u -110
Favorites 19-9 67.9% -0.39u -212
Over 19-9 67.9% -1.84u -212

Coming into UFC 259, the Favorite has won 67.9.% of bouts at women’s 115lbs over the last 13 months, but has failed to turn a profit, while the ‘Over’ has also failed to turn a profit, even after cashing at a 67.9% rate. Based on implied probability, any underdog at +212 or better would be a profitable bet to make in this division,  while any ‘Under’ bet at the same price would also be a +EV bet to make.

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Fav 8-1 88.9% +5.25 -150
Favorites 24-6-1 77.4% +7.65 -342
Under 14-17 45.2% +0.11u +121

The favorite has dominated the division over the past 13 months, winning 24 of the last 31 fights at Men’s 125lbs. A $100 bettor who has backed the favorite in every men’s flyweight bout since the start of 2020 has profited +$765 so far. Meanwhile, the Under has turned a very small profit in this division, despite the first five fights of 2021 going over the betting total. Based on implied probability, any ‘Under’ at men’s flyweight at +121 or better is a +EV bet worth making.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Dogs 16-23-1 41% +11.1 +144
Under 16-24 40% +5.02 +150

The underdog drops to 16-23-1 over the last 14 months in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division, but still maintains a profit of +11.1 units, while the ‘Under’ dropped over the weekend to 16-24, profiting +6.02 units in this division since January of last year. Based on the betting trends, and using implied probability, any underdog, as well as any ‘Under’ at the price of +150 or better in this division is worth backing as a +EV wager.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 31-28 52.5% +13.86u -111
‘Coin Flips’ Favs 12-7 63.2% +2.12u -150
Favorites 40-17-2 67.8% +2.27u -211

The ‘Under’ has been on a very decent run in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, going 31-28 for +13.86 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Under’ in this division at the price of -111 or better would be a +EV bet worth making long term. Meanwhile, the favorite improves to 40-17-2 coming into this weekend, cashing at a 67.9% rate for +2.27 units profit since January of last year. Based on the betting trend, implied probability has the buy price on the favorite in this division at anything better than -211.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 23-1 95.8% +8.21 -2281
Favorites 16-8 66.7% -0.12u -200
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 4-3 57% +1.17u -110

The Over has been a lock in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, cashing in every fight in this division except for one. The ‘Over’ has gone 23-1, hitting at a 95.8% rate for +8.21 units since January of 2020. Meanwhile, the favorite has cashed at a 66.7% rate over the last 14 months, but has failed to turn a profit with a 16-8 record. Based on the betting trend, any favorite at -200 or better in this division would be a +EV long-term bet worth making.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 48-19 71.6% +16.51u -252
Favorites 42-24-1 62.7% -4.79u -168

Coming into this weekend, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has hit at a 71.6% rate since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at the price of -252 or better, is a +EV bet worth making. Meanwhile, after last weekend, the favorite drops to 42-24-1 since last year, hitting at a 62.7% rate but failing to turn a profit over the last 14 months. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, a favorite is worth backing in this division only at the price of -168 or better, while the fade price would come in on the other side, at +168 or better.

UFC Women’s Featherweight Division

Since 2017 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 10-7 58.8% +3.21u -143
Favorites 13-4 76.5% +0.49u -325
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 2-2 50% +0.04u -110

We have yet to see a UFC Women’s Featherweight bout in 2021, and in fact, there have only been 17 UFC fights in the women’s 145lbs pound division, dating back to January of 2017. This is the only female division in the UFC where the ‘Under’ has cashed at a higher rate than the ‘Over’, with 10 of the last 17 fights at Women’s Featherweight going Under the betting total, profiting +3.21 units along the way. The Favorite in this division has dominated as well, cashing at a 76.5% rate, but turning just a +0.49 unit profit.

UFC Lightweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Dogs 26-34 43.3% +11.18u +131
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 7-6 53.8% +0.93u -110
Under 28-32 46.7% +0.24u +114

The underdog has been on a roll in the UFC Lightweight division, cashing at a 43.3% rate, and turning a profit of +11.18 units, with a 26-34 record over the last 14 months. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any underdog in this division at the price of +131 or better is a +EV bet worth making. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has been marginally profitable in this division since January of 2020, going 28-32 for +0.24 units along the way.

UFC Welterweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 45-20 69.2% +14.69u -225
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 14-7-1 63.6% +3.31u -150
Favorites 42-22-1 64.6% -0.7u -182

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at an astonishing 69.2% rate over the last 13 months, profiting for +14.69 units, with a 43-19 record. Based on the betting trend and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at the price of -225 or better is a +EV wager worth making. The favorite has cashed at a 64.6% rate in this welterweight division since January of 2020, but has failed to turn a profit.

UFC Middleweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 30-25 54.5% +6.03u -120
Favorites 38-17 69.1% +1.67u -224

Coming into this weekend, the ‘Under’ in the UFC Middleweight division drops to 30-25 over the last 14 months, cashing at a 54.5% rate, for +6.03 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, implied probability has the buy price on the ‘Under’ in this division now at -120 or better. Meanwhile, the favorite improves to 38-17, for a 69.1% win rate, cashing for +1.67 units since January of last year. Based on implied probability, any favorite in this division at the price of -224 or better, is a +EV wager worth making long term.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Favs 8-1 88.9% +5.09u -150
Favorites 26-13-1 65% +0.26u -186
Under 21-19 52.5% -1.78u -111

The UFC Light-Heavyweight division has been a tough one to call from a UFC Betting Trends perspective. The favorite has gone 26-13-1 at 205lbs over the last 14 months, profiting for just +0.26 units in that stretch. The ‘Over’ has cashed at a 52.5% rate, going 21-19, but has failed to turn a profit at -1.78 units since January of 2020.

UFC Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 8-5 61.5% +2.74u -110
Dog 21-31 40.4% +2.17u +148
Under 26-26 50% -2.43u +100

The underdog in the UFC Heavyweight division has cashed at a 41.2% rate since January of last year, going 21-30 for +2.17 units profit, while the total has gone a perfect 50% in the last 52 fights in the heavyweight division, going 26-26 over the last 14 months.