Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov Prop Bets for UFC Vegas 18

Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov Prediction | UFC Vegas 18 Picks and Props: Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov have a combined record of 17-9 to the ‘Over’ for +8.18 units profit in their combined 26 previous UFC bouts. On Saturday, the two square off in a battle of heavyweights looking to stay within striking distance of the UFC Heavyweight title.

Before making your UFC Vegas 18 picks, let’s take a look at the most probable and profitable prop bets for this UFC main event, as well as the UFC division trends.

UFC Vegas 18: Main Event Props

UFC Vegas 18

Alistair Overeem Alexander Volkov
To Win Outright +163 -170
Inside the Distance +215 +105
by Decision +700 +440
Total Rounds Over 1.5 (-200) Under 1.5 (+175)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: +275 No: -350
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

The most profitable prop to back Alexander Volkov on so far in his UFC career has been on him to ‘Win by Decision’. Bettors who have backed Volkov to win by decision in all 8 of his UFC bouts have gone 3-5 for +6.25 units profit, while the ‘Over’ in Volkov’s fights have gone 7-1 for +5.1 units profit. Exactly half of Volkov’s UFC fights have gone the distance, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop going 4-4 for +4.9 units proft.

Volkov to win outright has been a solid angle as well, as he has gone 6-2 in the UFC, for +3.7 units profit, with 3 of those 8 wins coming by way of stoppage. Volkov on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop has gone 3-5 for +2.16 units profit.

UFC Betting Trends: Alexander Volkov

Alexander Volkov
(Since 2016 UFC Debut)
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 3-5 +6.25u
Over 7-1 +5.1u
Fight Goes Distance 4-4 +4.9u
to Win Outright 6-2 +3.7u
Inside the Distance 3-5 +2.16u

The most profitable prop to bet in Alistair Overeem fights has been by backing his opponent to win ‘Inside the Distance’. Overeem has been stopped in 7 of his last 18 UFC bouts, with the ‘Inside the Distance’ angle on his opponent going 7-11 for +4.34 units.

Similarily to Volkov, Overeem has had more fights in his UFC career go ‘Over’ the betting total than ‘Under’. Over bettors who have taken the fight to reach beyond the total in Overeem’s last 18 UFC bouts have gone 10-8 for +3.08 units profit.

Spanning all the way back to his days in Strikeforce, Alistair Overeem has gone 19-8-1 in his last 28 professional MMA bouts. A $100 bettor who has backed Overeem on the moneyline over the last 13 years has profited +$459, that’s a net profit of +$16 per fight, win or lose.

Overeem has won 8 of his last 18 fights by way of stoppage, with the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop going 8-10 for +2.82 units profit. The least profitable prop to back in Alistair Overeem’s UFC career has been the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. Overeem has only won 3 of his last 18 UFC bouts by way of decision, with the prop going 3-15 for +0.85 units along the way.

UFC Betting Trends: Alistair Overeem

Alistair Overeem
(Since 2013)
UFC Record Profit (Units)
Opp. Inside the Distance 7-11 +4.34u
Over 10-8 +3.08u
to Win Outright
(Since 2007)
19-8-1 +4.59u
to Win Inside the Distance 8-10 +2.82u
by Decision 3-15 +0.85u

The underdog has won 20 of the last 46 UFC Men’s Heavyweight bouts, profiting for +3.63 units in the last 13 months. Based on the division betting trends and implied probability, any underdog at the price of +125 or better at men’s heavyweight has been a bet worth making. Meanwhile, 25 of the last 46 UFC Heavyweight bouts have gone ‘Over’ the betting total, for a marginal profit of +1.23 units. While most heavyweight bouts are lined with the chalk side being on the ‘Under’, you are able to get an ‘Over’ at the price of -114 or better, based on the division trend, you would be making an +EV wager.

UFC Betting Trends: Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 8-5 61.5% +2.74u -233
Dog 20-26 43.5% +3.63u +125
Over 25-21 54.3% +1.23u -114

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FAQ: UFC Vegas 18

What is the Main Event for UFC Vegas 18?

The main event for UFC Vegas 18 is Alexander Volkov taking on Alistair Overeem. Volkov comes in as the strong -17o favorite over the UFC legend Overeem.

When does UFC Vegas 18 start ?

The UFC Vegas 18 preliminary card starts at 5:00 PM ET, with the main card starting at 7:30 PM ET.