Adesanya vs Blachowicz: UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends

Adesanya vs Blachowicz: UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends: Israel Adesanya has won by decision in four of his nine UFC bouts, with two of those four decisions coming in UFC title fights. On Saturday, the ‘Last Style Bender’ is a -220 favorite, but some value is emerging on the prop market in this epic UFC 259 main event.

Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz Odds

UFC 259

Israel Adesanya Jan Blachowicz
To Win Outright -222 +207
Inside the Distance +140 +300
by Decision +275 +800
Total Rounds Over 3.5 (+105) Under 3.5 (-138)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: +162 No: -180

Israel Adesanya comes into Saturday’s UFC 259 with 9 bouts to his name, going a perfect 9-0. When adding in his UFC Interim Middleweight Championship bout against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236, Adesanya has been in 4 UFC title fights, almost half of his UFC career. In the four title fights, Adesanya has won two by decision, and two by spectacular knockout. His fight against Kelvin Gastelum was one of the greatest UFC fights of all time, and then followed up with his unbelievable knockout of Robert Whittaker, to win the undisputed 185lbs title. After that, Adesanya had an underwhelming performance against Yoel Romero, a fight that was criticized for being boring and uneventful. Adesanya silenced the critics in his follow-up fight, knocking the undefeated Paulo Costa out late in the 2nd round at UFC 253.

In nine UFC fights, Adesanya has won 5 by decision. A $100 bettor who has backed Adesanya on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, has profited +$1165 over the course of his stint in the UFC. This has been a +EV angle to back, with an ROI of +$129 profit per fight, win or lose. Beyond that, on the outright moneyline, Adesanya has profited +4.72 units with a 9-0 betting record, with eight of nine fights coming as the betting favorite. The only bout that saw Adesanya lined as a slight underdog was against Robert Whittaker in his UFC championship bout, coming in as the -105 juiced underdog against the -125 favorite Whittaker. Apart from that fight, Adesanya has been lined as the betting favorite in every fight, with an average betting line across his nine-fight UFC career of -200 on the UFC odds board.

Adesanya has gone the distance in five of his nine UFC bouts, with six of those nine going ‘Over’ the betting total. He has four wins by stoppage, with two of those four coming in UFC title fights.

UFC Betting Trends: Israel Adesanya

Israel Adesanya
Since 2018 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
by Decision 5-4 +11.65u
to Win Outright 9-0 +4.72u
Fight Goes Distance 5-4 +2.26u
Over 6-3 +1.8u
Inside the Distance 4-5 +0.96u

Jan Blachowicz has a 10-5 record in the UFC, and has been lined as the betting underdog in 10 of those 15 fights. A $100 bettor who has backed Blachowicz on the moneyline in every one of his UFC bouts has profited +$1025, dating back to his UFC in 2014. Blachowicz has finished 5 of his 10 wins by stoppage and has 5 wins by decision. Ten of his fifteen UFC fights have gone ‘Over’ the betting total, while nine of those ten have gone the distance.

UFC Betting Trends: Jan Blachowicz

Jan Blachowicz
Since 2014 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win Outright 10-5 +10.25u
Inside the Distance 5-10 +9.18u
to Win by Decision 5-10 +6.08u
Fight Goes Distance 9-6 +5.43u
Over 10-5 +2.64u
Opp. by Decision 4-11 +1.95u

The UFC Light-Heavyweight division has been one of the toughest to call from a division betting trends outlook. In most divisions, you are able to identify a pattern, on either side of the total hitting at a higher probability, or the favorite or underdog cashing at a higher rate than the other. With the 205lbs division, it has been an outright toss-up. Dating back to January of 2019, after 82 bouts in the UFC light-heavyweight division, the total has been split right down the middle, with the ‘Under’ going 41-40-1, with either side turning a profit.

UFC Betting Trends: Light-Heavyweight Division

Light-Heavyweight Trends Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Since 2020: Favorites 26-13-1 65% +0.26u -186
Since 2019: Under 41-40-1 50% -2.3u +100

Since the start of 2020, the favorite has cashed at a 65% rate, going 26-13-1 in this division, but has barely turned a profit at +0.26 units. While the Favorites in this division haven’t exactly been turning heads so to speak, there has been value on the chalk side at 205lbs, but only at the price of around -185 or better.

Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz Prop Picks

If you are going to bet this fight and are planning to back Israel Adesanya, but want to get the best bang for your buck. The best prop to back is undoubtedly the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at +275. At first glance, you may think that Adesanya is going to put Blachowicz away in quick fashion like he did to Whittaker or Paulo Costo, but considering Blachowicz may be the hardest hitter he’s ever faced, there is a large incentive for Adesanya to play the long game against Blachowicz, take his legs out from under him and slowly pick away at one of the slower opponents he’s ever faced. While the general consensus for those who are backing Izzy in this spot is him winning by stoppage, the UFC odds see Adesanya at +140 to win ‘Inside the Distance’, which based on implied probability is about a 41% proposition, when it should likely be closer to 30%.

As for Blachowicz, there is really only one path to victory here and that’s by getting the stoppage victory. Whether it is by knockout or submission, it doesn’t matter. Jan needs to end this fight in order to win it. He’s facing a much faster opponent, who is going to be able to pick him apart from the outside, and slowly but surely turn him into his strikes, and if Adesanya is smart he will fight a calculated point fight against Jan, atleast until he has his range and timing figured out.

If you are going to bet on this back, and plan to back Blachowicz, there is definitely no argument to be made against taking him on the moneyline at +205. However, when you see that Jan opened at around the +220 range, and you’re now buying into the same prop at +205, it’s a little bit discouraging having not been able to get ahead of what is somewhat surprising line movement, with the public coming in on Blachowicz. With that in mind, and considering that there is little to no possibility that Blachowicz has a path to victory that sees him picking up a decision, why not taking the ‘Inside the Distance’ on Jan at +300? Save yourself the grief of not having that closing line value in your pocket, and take the most probable outcome for the fighter you’re backing, and that’s by taking Jan to win by stoppage at 3-1 odds.

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