UFC Fight Night 177: Best Bets

UFC Fight Night Eye vs Calvillo is a thin card and we have heard it all week! We have broken every fight down from top to bottom and combed over every opportunity and found a few bets we like. But of those spots which ones do we like most? What are the best bets for Saturday? I’m glad you asked!

Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain: The Basics

Woah woah woah…. I can hear it already! “But Clint!! You already broke down Fili vs Jourdain!” Well I’m glad you were paying attention and hopefully you read that article, because I have an extremely hot take on it and I’m rolling some dice! Don’t worry… There’s more to it than just repeating a pick I already gave you. If you haven’t read that article then by all means please check it!

UFC Underdog Pick Fight Night 177 Andre Fili

Fili vs Jourdain: The Stats

Fighter Andre Fili
Odds -227
Age 29 years old
Height 5’11
Reach 74’
Wins by KO/TKO 9
Win/Loss 20-7
Finish Rate 60%

 

Fighter Charles Jourdain
Odds +!87
Age 24 years old
Height 5’9
Reach 69’
Wins by Submission 7
Win/Loss 10-2
Finish Rate 100%

Fili vs Jourdain: The Angle

So, if you have read the article or you follow me on Twitter (@DieHardMMAPod) then you already know that I am taking that dog action on Charles Jourdain Saturday night! Based on the way these two fighters like to throw down, we can add another bet to this same fight that will give us an increased chance of lining our pockets. Now that totals have been released, it looks like they set this one at 2.5 rounds and I LOVE this under! Both of these fighters average 4 significant strikes per minute and absorb about the same.

ufc fight night 177 best bets

courtesy of tsn.ca

Jourdain brings the heat and fights to the death every single time out and Fili is always more than willing to engage. Jourdain has been relying on his durability and chin to land the kill shot, but Fili does much the same, and in his last fight against Sodiq Yusuff he had his opponent badly hurt. Only the physical strength of Yusuff kept him alive in that fight and that’s not an advantage I see available for Jourdain.

While I am on the side of Jourdain and I think he stands a very good shot of landing the kill shot here, there is always that chance that he leaves himself open and eats a big shot from Fili who seems to be sitting on his punches more. There is also the grappling to consider and Fili has a definitive advantage on the mat. Both fighters are more than capable of finishing this fight before the final bell and with + money on Jourdain in our pocket already, we can snag + money on that under and cash both! Should Jourdain get caught, the only outcome we don’t like is an extremely late finish or Fili by decision. I like this spot to double up!

The Pick: Fili vs Jourdain Under 2.5 rounds +155

Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori: The Basics

There is some serious heat between these two fighters. Marvin Vettori has been extremely frustrated with his current situation and has not been shy about it. He has had fight after fight fall apart due to opponent injuries and COVID19. Finally when it looked like he had a dance partner in Roberson the fight, it was called off by the doctors. Roberson had a bad weight cut and ended up in the hospital. Luckily he was okay, but Vettori boiled over. There is a video of Vettori confronting Roberson in the lobby of the fighter’s hotel after the fights was canceled. A brawl almost broke out. Come fight night… these two are going to get after it.

Roberson vs Vettori: The Stats

Fighter Karl Roberson
Odds +180
Age 29 years old
Height 6’1
Reach 74’
Wins by Submission 4
Win/Loss 9-2
Finish Rate 66%

Karl Roberson is a young gun coming to us from Dana White’s Contender series and he has had a spotty run in the UFC. After knocking out Ryan Spann on Dana’s show, Roberson got the call up and ran straight to the deep end facing Darren “The Dentist” Stewart and submitted him in round 1. After that however Cezar Ferreira returned the favor and exposed a big hole in Roberson’s game, submitting him in the very first round with an arm triangle.

Since then Roberson has fought 3 low level opponents, only finishing one of them. He faced a big step up in competition against Glover Teixeira at 205 on short notice where he was once again submitted with an arm triangle. Roberson on the feet is a problem! He has heavy hands and great leg kicks, but he struggles greatly with takedowns and has little submission defense.

Fighter Marvin Vettori
Odds -222
Age 26 years old
Height 6’0
Reach 74’
Wins by Submission 8
Win/Loss 14-4
Finish Rate 71%

Vettori is another young gun who has been groomed up until this point. Vettori has a very well rounded skill set, but doesnt seem to shine anywhere. Since entering the UFC with a submission win he is on a run of 6 fights going to the judges score cards. Vettori has faced increasing levels of competition and struggled with fighters like Antonio Carlos Jr and lost a closely contested split with current champion Israel Adesanya, but appears to have put it together in his last two fights. Vettori dismantled both Cezar Ferriera and Andrew Sachez over impressive 3 round fights and is looking to make waves at 185.

Roberson vs Vettori: The Angle

courtesy of espn.com

Even though both fighters have a tendency to go to the judge’s cards, there is an underlying threat to both. Roberson has a clear path to victory with his vicious knockout power on the feet. Vettori definitely has hands himself, and he has an impressive ground game to match. We have seen the weakness of Roberson’s ground game exploited by dangerous grapplers before and I believe Vettori can follow the same game plan that Glover used to lock up a sub, or possibly TKO via ground and pound.

With both fighters on the edge of breaking into the upper half of the division, they will both be looking to put on a show. With the extra heat of the fight falling out last time, both men will be looking to make statements and hurt the other. In my opinion, this fight stands an excellent chance of ending in round 2 and we are getting the Under 2.5 at + money!! I’m taking the shot! The best part about these two spots is at least one of them should cash. If you have 2 plays at + money, going 1-1 means you are banking units!

The Pick: Roberson vs Vettori U2.5 rounds +180