Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling: UFC 259 Odds

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling: UFC 259 Odds: The defending UFC Men’s Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan is coming in as a coin-flip favorite against Aljamain Sterling for this weekend’s UFC 259 event. However, Sterling is starting to take money, and could close as the betting favorite by the time both fighters make their walk on Saturday night. Historically, the ‘coin flip’ favorite has been on a roll in this division, winning 12 of the last 19 bouts in this ‘coin flip’ range.

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Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Odds

UFC 259

Petr Yan

Aljamain Sterling

To Win Outright -104 -107
Inside the Distance +250 +210
by Decision +333 +350
Total Rounds Over 3.5 (-120) Under 3.5 (+105)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+130) No (-140)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Mar 6th, 10:00 PM ET

Petr Yan comes into this fight with a very slight height advantage, but it is nullified by Aljamain Sterling’s 4-inch reach advantage. Yan is the younger fighter at 28 years old, with Sterling coming in as the challenger at 31 years of age. Yan is training out of the Russian MMA gym ‘RCC Academy’, which has turned out fighters such as Zubaira Tukhugov. It’s not exactly a murderers row of training partners for Yan, but he has shown that means relatively nothing, as the champion comes into this fight riding a 10 fight winning streak.

Meanwhilke, Aljamain Sterling is fighting out of Ray Long’s gym in Long Island, New York. He trains with UFC veteran Chris Weidman, as well as Al Iaquinta, and Merab Dvalishvilli.

Tale of the Tape: Yan vs Sterling

UFC Men’s Bantamweights Petr Yan Aljamain Sterling
Record 15-1 19-3
Finish Rate 54% (7 Wins by T/KO) 53% (8 Wins by Submission)
Age 28 31
Height 5’7 5’7
Reach 67′ 71′

Yan comes into this fight with a 7-0 record in the UFC. In his professional MMA career, Yan has 7 wins by T/KO, 1 win by submission, and 7 wins by decision. Meanwhile, Sterling comes into this Saturday’s UFC 259 co-main event with an 11-3 record in the UFC. He has two wins by T/KO, 8 wins by submission, and 9 by decision. Yan has never been stopped in his professional MMA career, with his only loss coming by way of decision. As for Aljo, he has 1 T/KO loss to Marlon Moraes in the UFC and 2 losses by decision.

Petr Yan lands about 1.5 strikes per minute more than Sterling, with Yan clocked at 6.32 strikers per minute to Aljo’s 4.82. Both fighters have a career accuracy in the UFC of about 50%. Yan has taken far more shots than Sterling has, coming in at 3.25 strikes absorbed per minute, with Sterling only taking 1.94 absorbed strikes per minute.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

UFC Men’s Bantamweight
Betting Trends: Since 2020
Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 31-28 52.5% +13.86u -111
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 12-7 63.2% +2.12u -150
Favorites 40-17 67.8% +2.27u -211

The ‘Under’ has been on an absolute tare in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, going 31-28 for +13.86 units profit. With a 52.5% win percentage, implied probability has any ‘Under’ in this division lined at -111 or better as a +EV wager worth making long term. Meanwhile, the ‘coin flip’ favorite has gotten the better side of the toss-up fight since the start of last with, with the chalk side winning 12 of the last 19 ‘coin flip’ bouts at men’s bantamweight. This is definitely a trend worth tracking, because as it stands now Petr Yan is still the betting favorite, but some heavy money is coming in on Sterling, which could push him to become the favorite as the challenger in this bantamweight title fight.

Apart from the ‘coin flip’ bout, the favorite has been absolutely killing it in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, going 40-17, cashing at a 67.8% for +2.27 units profit in that time. Based on the betting trends, and using implied probability, any favorite in this division at -210 or better has been a +EV wager worth making.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Fight Goes Distance 42-36 53.8% +13.63u
Over 53-25 67.9% +9.34u
Underdogs 30-47-1 38.5% +4.95u
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 11-8 57.9 +0.79u

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