Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends
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Mar 4, 2021
Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends: Trevin Jones and Mario Bautista have 4 combined fights in the UFC, with 3 of their 4 bouts going ‘Under’ the betting total. On Saturday, these two men meet on the early preliminary card for UFC 259, with the ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop lined at +155. Let’s take a look at the betting profiles of both fighters, and find out if there is value on the Under in this match-up.
〉Check out Clint MacLean’s full breakdown of UFC 259 on the DieHardMMA Podcast
Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones Odds
UFC 259 Props |
Mario Bautista | Trevin Jones |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -225 | +206 |
| Inside the Distance | +240 | +495 |
| by Decision | +140 | +400 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-172) | Under 2.5 (+155) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes: -150 | No: +125 |
Mario Bautista has a 2-1 record in the UFC, with one win coming by way of stoppage and one coming by way of decision. The most profitable prop to back Bautista on in his UFC career has been the ‘Under’ which has gone 2-1 for +2.65 units.
UFC Betting Trends: Mario Bautista
| Mario Bautista Since 2019 UFC Debut |
UFC Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 2-1 | +2.65u |
| Inside the Distance | 1-2 | +2.1u |
| to Win Outright | 2-1 | +1.82u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 2-1 | +1.35u |
| to Win by Decision | 1-2 | +0.75u |
| Opp. Inside the Distance | 1-2 | +0.5u |
Trevin Jones had a one-hitter quitter against UFC prospect Timur Valiev back in August of 2020, and cashed as a heavy +470 underdog by doing so. Unfortunately for Jones, that victory was whipped away by an NSAC violation, after testing positive for marijuana. Luckily for sports bettors, none of that matters, and bets are finalized on the night of the fight, and bettors who backed Jones that evening walked away with a +470 dog in their pocket.
UFC Betting Trends: Trevin Jones
| Trevin Jones Since 2020 UFC Debut |
UFC Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inside the Distance | 1-0 | +8u |
| to Win Outright | 1-0 | +4.7 |
| Under | 1-0 | +1.8u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 1-0 | +1.55u |
The ‘Under’ in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division has been on a tare in the UFC over the last 14 months, going 31-28 for +13.86 units profit in that stretch. Based on the betting trends, any ‘Under’ in this division at the buy price of -111 or better is a +EV wager worth making long term.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 31-28 | 52.5% | +13.86u | -111 |
| ‘Coin Flips’ Favs | 12-7 | 63.2% | +2.12u | -150 |
| Favorites | 40-17-2 | 67.8% | +2.27u | -211 |
The favorite in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division has cashed at a 67.8% rate going back to January of 2020, profiting for +2.27 units in that stretch. Based on the betting trend, there is value on the favorite in this division at the buy price of -211 or better.
UFC 259 Odds: Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones
If you are betting this fight and plan to back Trevin Jones, the best way to do so is on the outright moneyline at +205 on the UFC odds board. While there is an argument to be made for betting Jones to win on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +495, you are compounding losses if Jones goes out there and wins this fight by decision, especially considering the market is expecting this fight to reach the scorecards.
If you plan on backing Mario Bautista in this fight, the best value can be found by backing him on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +240. Bautista is lined at -225 on the moneyline, and in a fight that is expected to go the distance, you are asking for a lot to go Bautista’s way by betting him to win by decision.
As for the total, there seems to be a ton of value on the ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop at +155. Both fighters have gone Under the total more times than not in their UFC careers, going for a combined record of 3-1 for +4.45 units profit between both fighters.
