Justin Jaynes vs Devonte Smith Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Justin Jaynes vs Devonte Smith Pick

Justin Jaynes vs Devonte Smith Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Justin Jaynes and Devonte Smith have a combined 7-0 record to the ‘Under’ in their UFC careers. On Saturday the oddsmakers are expecting that number to move to 8-0, as Jaynes and Smith face each other in a short notice catchweight bout at UFC Vegas 18. The event is headlined by UFC heavyweight Alexander Volkov taking on MMA legend Alistair Overeem.

Justin Jaynes vs Devonte Smith Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Justin Jaynes

Devonte Smith

To Win Outright +246 -274
Inside the Distance +325 -155
by Decision +775 +450
Total Rounds Over 1.5 (+145) Under 1.5 (-155)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+260) No (-380)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

DieHardMMA Podcast: Jaynes vs Smith

Odd.com’s Clint MacLean breaks down this catchweight bout between ‘The Guitar Hero’ Justin Janes and ‘King Kage’ Devonte Smith for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 18.


Tale of the Tape: Jaynes vs Smith

UFC Catchweight Bout Justin Jaynes Devonte Smith
Record 16-6 10-2
Finish Rate 87% (8 Wins by T/KO) 100% (9 Wins by T/KO)
Age 31 27
Height 5’8 5’9
Reach 67.5′ 76′

Justin Jaynes has fought all over the lower level MMA promotions, from ‘Big John’s MMA’ to ‘XFS’, to the ‘World Series of Fighting’ as well as even ‘Bellator’. Through that stint, he compiled a 14-4 record before debuting in the UFC in June of 2020. Since then, Jaynes has had 3 fights in the UFC, going 1-2, with all three fights coming by way of stoppage. This will be the fourth fight in less than a calendar year for Jaynes, and he will look to avoid the dreaded three-fight losing streak.

As for Devonte Smith, he has had a similar path to the UFC, except he has done it in a quicker fashion, with fewer losses. The factoryX product and Bedford, Ohio native made his first UFC appearance in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, debuting in the UFC lightweight division, and went 3-1 since then, taking his first UFC loss to heavy underdog Khama Worthy at UFC 241 back in August of 2019.

Smith was supposed to be facing Alex de Silva Coelho at UFC Vegas 18, but Coelho was unable to fight, pulling out for undisclosed reasons. Justin Jaynes will step in as a short-notice replacement, and the fight will be held at a 160-catchweight limit.

• Related: Martin Day steps in on short notice against Timur Valiev at UFC Vegas 18


UFC Betting Trends: Jaynes vs Smith

Devonte Smith
Since 2018 DWCS Debut
Record Profit (Units)
Opp. Inside the Distance 1-3 +7.5u
Opp. to Win Outright 1-3 +4.75u
Under 4-0 +3.95u
Inside the Distance 3-1 +2.13u
to Win Outright 3-1 +1.39u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 4-0 +1.33u
Justin Jaynes
Since 2020 UFC Debut
Record Profit (Units)
Opp. Inside the Distance 2-1 +3.95u
Under 3-0 +3.16u
Inside the Distance 1-2 +2.5u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 3-0 +2.09u
to Win Outright 1-2 +0.6u
Opp. to Win Outright 2-1 +0.38u

UFC Betting Trends: Lightweight Division

Since 2020 Record Profit (Units)
Dogs 24-33 +8.76u
Under 28-29 +3.24u

Justin Jaynes vs Devonte Smith Predictions:

UFC Vegas 18 Picks – Jaynes/Smith Under 1.5 Rounds (-163): While there is a ton of value on Justin Jaynes at that +246 price, it seems as though the safer bet to make is the ‘Under’ at -163. It may be a steep price, but you can most likely count on one of these fighters getting the finished, especially with Jaynes coming in on such short notice. Between these two fighters, the ‘Under’ is a perfect 7-0 in their combined total UFC fights, with all 3 of Devonte Smith’s wins coming by way of stoppage, as well as his one loss. The same can be said about Justin Jaynes, he has one stoppage victory in the UFC, with his two losses coming by way of submission and TKO. Even at the steep odds of -163, you’re getting a fighter who has had little to no training camp, against a guy who has been known to take his opponents out or get taken out himself.


Jairzinho Rozenstruik

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u