Nunes vs Anderson: UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends

Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends: Amanda Nunes comes into this Saturday’s UFC Featherweight Championship bout with Megan Anderson holding a 13-1 record in the UFC, with 9 of her 13 wins coming by way of stoppage. A $100 bettor who has backed Nunes to win ‘Inside the Distance’ has profited +$1100 in her 8-year UFC career. This Saturday she is lined at -350 to defeat Megan Anderson by stoppage.

〉For a full fight breakdown of Nunes vs Anderson, check out the DieHardMMA Podcast

Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson Odds

UFC 259 Props

Amanda Nunes Megan Anderson
To Win Outright -700 +750
Inside the Distance -350 +1125
by Decision +477 +2000
Total Rounds Over 1.5 (-115) Under 1.5 (+104)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: +400 No: -500

Amanda Nunes has won 15 of her last 18 fights going back to her Strikeforce debut in 2011, and is 13-1 in the UFC, with 9 wins by stoppage. Bettors who have backed Nunes on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in every fight in her UFC career are up +11 units profit, with a 9-5 betting record.

UFC Betting Trends: Amanda Nunes

Amanda Nunes
Since 2013 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
Inside the Distance 9-5 +11.06u
to Win Outright
(Since 2011 Strikeforce Debut)
15-3 +13.56u
to Win by Decision 4-10 +8.67u
Under 9-5 +5.05u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 10-4 +1.14u

Megan Anderson is a former Invicta FC Featherweight Champion. She comes into Saturday’s bout with a 7-3 record since 2015, and a 3-2 record since coming into the UFC. All 3 of Anderson’s wins have come by way of stoppage, with 4 of her 5 bouts going ‘Under’ the betting total.

UFC Betting Trends: Megan Anderson

Megan Anderson
Since 2018 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
Inside the Distance 3-2 +3.97u
Under 4-1 +3.69u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 4-1 +2.05u
to Win Outright 7-3 +0.08u

Over the last three years, there has only been 17 bouts in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. In those 17 bouts, the Under has cashed in 10 of them, and the favorite has won 13 of them. Based on the betting trends, any ‘Under’ in this division at -143 or better is a +EV wager worth making long term. While the favorite has been bettable in this division at odds as high as -325.

UFC Women’s Featherweight Division

Since 2017 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 10-7 58.8% +3.21u -143
Favorites 13-4 76.5% +0.49u -325
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 2-2 50% +0.04u -110

Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson Prop Picks

If you are betting this fight and plan to back Amanda Nunes, there is very little option worth betting, as a ton of the value on the Nunes side in this fight has already been sucked out, or was never there to begin with. Amanda is lined at best as a -800 favorite on the UFC odds board, but is about a consensus -1200 on the moneyline across the board. Nunes is -350 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, which based on implied probability, is a 77% proposition, which should probably be closer to 67%.

If you plan to back Amanda Nunes, the best way to do so as far as value goes is on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at +475, and if you’re hell bent on Amanda winning this fight inside the distance, but don’t want to lay the -350, take a bite of the ‘Under 1.5’ at +104, or maybe even take the ‘Under 2.5’ at -200.

If you plan on backing Megan Anderson in this fight, there’s really no other angle worth taking than the fat +750 moneyline. You really don’t want to take any of your outs away on Anderson at such a long-shot price. So while taking a shot at that very tantalizing +1250 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop seems very intriguing, Anderson’s length, and ability to possibly keep this fight on the outside, is something that should keep you away from that ITD prop. Unlike the Jan Blachowicz fight, there is a path to victory for Anderson to win this fight by decision. So if you’re backing Anderson in this fight, don’t be greedy and take her to win outright.

If Amanda Nunes is able to defeat Megan Anderson, she will have defeated every major MMA promotion’s women’s featherweight champion, with the exception of the current Invicta FC champion Pam Sorenson.

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