Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns | UFC 258 Prop Bets

Usman vs Burns Pick | UFC 258 Predictions:  Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns have combined for +19.46 units profit in their UFC careers on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, with a combined 14-13 record. Both fighters have consistently reached the later stages of their fights, with the ‘Over’ cashing for a combined record of 18-9 for +5.33 units profit in their 27 total UFC fights. The ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop is currently lined at an affordable -138 in this bout, while the ‘Over 4.5 rounds’ prop sits at -145.

Before making your picks for this Saturday’s main event at UFC 258, check out our breakdown of the most profitable, and probable props to cash in both these men’s UFC careers.

UFC 258 Odds Popping You Up

UFC 258: Main Event Props

UFC 258

Kamaru Usman

Gilbert Burns

To Win Outright -235 +241
Inside the Distance +275 +450
by Decision +125 +670
Total Rounds Over 4.5 (-145) Under 4.5 (+123)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: -138 No: +120
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 13th, 10:00 PM ET

In his UFC career dating back to 2015, Kamaru Usman has gone to a decision in 9 of his 12 UFC bouts, profiting for +10 units along the way, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop going 9-3 as well for +6.21 units profit, and the ‘Over’ going 10-2 for +4.69 units. Usman is 13-0 for +6.21 units on the moneyline dating back to his final fight in Legacy FC in 2014. Usman is lined as a -235 favorite against his former training partner Gilbert Burns on the UFC odds board and is +125 to win by a decision on Saturday.

UFC Betting Trends: Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman
Since 2015 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 9-3 +10u
to Win Outright
(Since 2014: Legacy FC)
13-0 +6.21u
Fight Goes Distance 9-3 +5.14u
Over 10-2 +4.69u

Gilbert Burns has gone to the judge’s scorecards in 5 of his 15 UFC bouts dating back to his 2014 UFC debut. Bettors who have backed the ‘Burns by Decision’ prop have profited +9.46 units, with the ‘Over’ cashing in 9 of his 15 UFC fights, for +0.64 units profit. Burns has cashed on the moneyline with a 12-3 record, profiting +5.64 units in his UFC career.

UFC Betting Trends: Gilbert Burns

Gilbert Burns
Since 2014 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 5-10 +9.46u
to Win Outright 12-3 +5.64u
to Win Inside the Distance 7-8 +2.76u
Over 9-6 +0.64u

The ‘Over’ has cashed consistently in the UFC Welterweight division over the past two years, going 43-19 for +14.21 units profit since January of 2020, and 92-47 for +20.62 units going back to the start of 2019. Meanwhile, the Underdog has fared very well in this division over recent history, going 57-81-1 for +16.9 units profit over the last 25 months of welterweight bouts.

UFC Betting Trends: Welterweight Division

Welterweight Trends Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Since 2020: Over 43-19 69.4% +14.21u -227
Since 2019: Over 92-47 66.2% +20.62u -196
Since 2019: Dogs 57-81-1 41% +16.9u +144
Since 2020: Dogs 22-39-1 35.5% +0.07u +182

UFC 258 After the Weigh In

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Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns Pick

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FAQ: UFC 258

What are Gilbert Burns' chances of beating Kamaru Usman?

Based on the betting odds and implied probability, Gilbert Burns has a 35.7% chance of beating Kamaru Usman.

Who is the biggest Favorite at UFC 258

The biggest betting favorite on the UFC 258 card is Brazilian Rodolfo Vieira coming in as a -380 favorite to California’s Anthony Hernandez.

What time does UFC 258 start

The preliminary card for UFC 258 starts at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10:00 PM ET on pay-per-view.