Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher Pick: UFC 258 Predictions

Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher Pick – UFC 258 Predictions: Backers of Brian ‘Boom’ Kelleher have enjoyed a run of profits so far in his UFC career. Kelleher has won 5 of his 10 UFC fights by way of stoppage, cashing on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop for +13.24 units along the way.

At UFC 258, Kelleher is a +230 underdog to Ricky Simon in a bout that was recently moved to the main card. Kelleher is lined at +450 to win the fight inside the distance. The betting market expects Simon to pick up the decision victory, with his decision prop lined at on the chalk side at -115.

Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher Odds

UFC 258

Ricky Simon Brian Kelleher
To Win Outright -250 +230
Inside the Distance +700 +450
by Decision -115 +520
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-230) Under 2.5 (+203)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: -205 No: +175
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 13th, 7:00 PM ET

Odds.com’s Clint MacLean breaks down the Kelleher vs Simon fight with his special guest Matt Holt on the DieHardMMA Podcast.

Tale of the Tape: Simon vs Kelleher

Men’s UFC Featherweights Ricky Simon Brian Kelleher
Record 17-3 22-11
Finish Rate 47% (5 Wins via T/KO) 81% (10 Wins by Submission)
Age 28 34
Height 5’6 5’6
Reach 70′ 64′

Ricky Simon comes in as the younger fighter at 28 years of age to Kelleher who is 34. Simon has a three-inch reach advantage on Kelleher, with Simon at 69′ to Kelleher’s 66′. We last saw Brian Kelleher in action about 6 months ago at UFC Vegas 9, where he picked up a submission victory over Ray Rodriguez in just 39 seconds. As for Simon, we last saw him in action 24 days ago at UFC Fight Island 8 where he defeated Gaetano Pirrello by way of submission.

UFC Betting Trends: Brian Kelleher

Brian Kelleher: Since 2017 UFC Debut Record Profit (Units)
to Win Inside the Distance 5-5 +13.24u
Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance 8-2 +6.75u
to Win Outright 6-4 +5.69u
Under 6-4 +4.6u
Opp. Inside the Distance 3-7 +1.29u

The best way to back Brian Kelleher in his UFC career has been on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop where he holds a 5-5 record for +13.24 units profit, while the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance’ prop has profited +6.75 units with an 8-2 record. Kelleher has won 6 of his 10 bouts in the UFC, with a moneyline return of +5.69 units, while 6 of his 10 fights have gone Under the betting total for +4.6 units profit.

UFC Betting Trends: Ricky Simon

Ricky Simon: Since 2018 UFC Debut Record Profit (Units)
to Win Outright:
(Since 2017 Contender Series/LFA)
10-2 +3.79u
to Win by Decision 3-4 +1.84u
Over 5-2 +0.83
Fight Doesn’t Go Decision 3-4 +0.65u

The best way to back Ricky Simon in his MMA career dating back to his first appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017, to his small run in LFA, back to the UFC, has been on the moneyline. Simon is 10-2 in his last 12 fights, profiting for +3.79 units in that stretch. He has won 3 of his 7 UFC bouts by decision, profiting +1.84 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, with the ‘Over’ cashing in 5 of his 7 bouts for +0.83 units, yet the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance’ prop has been profitable in his 7 fight UFC career, going 3-4 for +0.65 units. Simon has only ever been stopped once in his UFC career, which was a shocking first-round knockout to UFC hall of farmer Uriah Faber.

UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 45-18 71.4% +15.93 -250
Favorites 40-22-1 63.5% -3.74u -174

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has cashed at a 71.4% rate since the start of 2020, going 45-18 for +15.93 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in the men’s 145lbs division has been a profitable bet at the buy price of -250 or better. Meanwhile, the favorite has won at a 63.5% rate in the men’s featherweight division but has failed to pull a profit with a 40-22-1 record. Based on this division trend, if you’re going to come in on the other side of a favorite at featherweight, you should do so at the buy price of +174 or higher, as the underdog has only won 36.5% of fights in this division over the last 13 months.

Brian Kelleher is lined on the UFC odds board at of anywhere between +198 and as high as +238 on the moneyline in this fight. A price that is well within the range of value at +175 or better in this division. As for the total, the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop in this fight is lined at odds of -232, which is still within the implied buy price of -250.

Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher Pick

If you’re going to bet on this fight, there is a ton of value on Brian Kelleher to win ‘Inside the Distance’ at +450. Especially considering the finish rate Kelleher has in his UFC career. If you plan to back Kelleher, you’re still getting a solid price at +230, so if you’re not feeling like being greedy, you can settle on the moneyline at more than 2-1 odds. There is a good amount of value on the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance’ at +175, as well as on the ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop at +203.

If you plan to back Ricky Simon, you’re probably best off just taking him on the outright moneyline, in a big boy bet, or in a parlay piece, as the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop seems to be priced out at odds of -115.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik