UFC 249 Predictions: Beginners Guide to Most Profitable Trends

UFC 249 Picks Aleksei Oleinik
Time: Saturday, May 9th, 2020 6:00 PM EDT
Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL.
TV: ESPN, ESPN+ and ESPN Pay-Per-View

UFC 249 betting is just days away, and with bettors not too familiar with the sport, itching to get betting action in. We look at some tips for beginners, starting with the most profitable trends in the UFC, by division. For a breakdown of lightweight fight Ferguson vs Gaethje check out this other UFC 249 breakdown!

UFC 249 Heavyweight Odds:

Bout Odds
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabrício Werdum +260 / -330
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro -205 / +172
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik -310 / +250

Fade the short favorite in the Heavyweight Division.

UFC 249 Picks Greg Hardy

(AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

One of, if not the best +EV trends to back in UFC betting is the trend of fading the short favorite in the UFC Men’s Heavyweight division. It doesn’t happen very often, but when it does, the side of +money is the one you want to be on. Since the start of 2019, the underdog has gone: 10-5, when facing a between -150 and -101, for a profit of +5.19u. Unfortunately at UFC 249, all of the favorites in the heavyweight division are long ones, but at UFC on ESPN 9 on May 13th, there are a few heavyweight bouts featuring short favorites. We will keep an eye on those for next week. As far as blindly backing the outright underdog in the heavyweight division, you are profitable, but not by much. Since 2019, the underdog has gone 18-26 for a profit of just +0.6u.

Over more probable than Under at heavyweight.
Another surprising factor at heavyweight is the lack of fights that go under the total. Since 2019, only 23 of 49 fights have gone under the total, with the over actually hitting at a higher rate. It’s a surprising set of numbers considering we think of most heavyweight fights ending quickly because of the power of each fight, as we’ve come to learn, that’s not exactly the case.

UFC Picks Men’s Welterweight Division

Bout Odds
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price -290 / +250
Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis +130 / -152

The Dog barks often at Welterweight
The underdog has been the profitable side to back in the UFC’s welterweight division. Since 2019, the dog has gone 42-49, an impressive 46.2%, and an even more impressive profit of +21.73 units. If you bet $100 on the underdog in all 91 welterweight fights since the start of 2019, you would have profited $24 per fight, win or lose. With the outright underdog winning at a rate of 46.2%, it’s even more impressive for the underdog when facing a short favorite of -150 or better, to be winning at a rate of 55.2% (16-13, +4.01u)

Out of the two underdogs of Price and Cerrone, you are getting more value on the +250 with Price, but Cerrone is a dog facing a short favorite, which has hit at a higher rate than the outright underdog. From an MMA handicapping point of view, I have a hard time betting Cerrone against ‘Showtime’ Pettis, but Nico Price is a solid bet at +250. From a trend betting perspective, you can make definitely make a case for betting both underdogs, in a division that has proven to be ripe with upsets, betting the underdog at 170lbs is never an outlandish idea.

The Over is probable and profitable at 170lbs
In the UFC’s welterweight division, the Over has hit at a rate of 65.9% since the start of 2019, going 60-31 for a profit of +12.52u. In 91 welterweight bouts, if you bet $100 on the over in every single fight, you would have profited +$14 per fight, win or lose. According to implied probability, a 65.9% proposition should have a buy price at about -190. With that in mind, you are getting a lot of value on the Over 1.5 rounds in Luque vs Price at -111. Meanwhile, in the Cerrone vs Pettis match up, the Over 2.5 rounds sit at +105, which is a bet you can’t really argue with.

UFC Picks Men’s Featherweight Division

Bout Odds
Bryce Mitchell vs. Charles Rosa -158 / +134
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar +205 / -250

Fading the short favorite has been profitable in men’s Featherweight.
The underdog defeating the short favorite has ben a profitable trend in the UFC’s featherweight division. Since 2019, the underdog has gone 18-13 against a favorite of -150 or better, for a profit of +6.13 units. Neither favorite in Mitchell/Rosa or Stephens/Kattar is in the -150 or better range, although Bryce Mitchell is approaching it slightly, currently sitting around -165.

UFC Predictions Men’s Bantamweight Division

Bout Odds
Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz  -225 / +186

Ride the dog vs the short favorite in men’s Bantamweight.
The underdog vs the short favorite between -150 and -101 has been profitable over the last year. Since 2019, the dog vs the short favorite has gone 13-10, +3.98u. Although it doesn’t apply at UFC 249, there are numerous upcoming UFC Bantamweight division bouts coming up, where we can utilize this betting trend.

Other profitable trends in the Bantamweight Division.
The Over has an impressive 68.4% rating since 2019, going 52-24 since the start of last year for a profit of +7.38u. With the over in the Cejudo/Cruz fight currently set at 4.5 rounds, -200, you are getting value on a prop that should have a buy price of around -215. Considering Cruz’s ability to evade offensive attacks from his opponent, I wouldn’t be surprised if the over cashes in this fight, but even with value at -200, it’s risky business betting the over in a five-round fight.

UFC Picks Men’s Middleweight Division

Bout Odds
Uriah Hall vs. Ronaldo Souza +102 / -120

The Over brings in profits at 185lbs.
Since the start of last year, the Over, in the UFC’s Middleweight Division has hit at an astounding 69.8%, going 37-16 for +9.15u profits. If you bet $100 on the Over in all 53 middleweight bouts since last year, you’d have profited +$17 per fight, win or lose.

With the Over 2.5 rounds prop currently sitting at -112 in the Hall/Souza fight, there is a decent amount of value backing this trend in this fight.

The dog is bringing in slight profits vs the short favorite at Middleweight.
Another profitable trend in the UFC’s Middleweight Division has been the underdog vs the short favorite of -150 or better. Since last year, the Underdog vs favorites between -150 and -101 have gone: 11-10, +1.77u. Small profits, but still a +EV trend none the less. With Uriah Hall in the dog position vs the short favorite in Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza. You’re getting a fighter coming off two straight wins as a dog, vs a fighter coming off two straight losses as the favorite. You can’t deny the value on Uriah Hall here, and I wouldn’t be against backing the dog in this position.