Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Odds | UFC 259 Predictions

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Odds | UFC 259 Predictions: Both fighters come into this title bout with the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop being the most profitable one to back in their respective UFC careers. While Yan has just as many finishes in the UFC as Sterling has, Aljo has done so in unexpected fashion on more than one occasion, profiting for +5.93 units profit in his entire career on the ‘ITD’ prop.

On Saturday at UFC 259, Aljomain Sterling comes in as the ‘coin flip’ underdog in a title fight for a Bantamweight division that has seen the betting favorite win 67% of the bouts since January of last year.

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Odds

UFC 259 Props

Petr Yan Aljamain Sterling
To Win Outright -108 +100
Inside the Distance +235 +250
by Decision +290 +265
Total Rounds Over 3.5 (-120) Under 3.5 (+110)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: +120 No: -130

Petr Yan has a 7-0 record in the UFC, with 4 of his 7 wins coming by way of stoppage. Bettors who have backed Yan on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop have gone 4-3, for +2.93 units profit. It shouldn’t be surprising that Yan has only 2 units of profit on the moneyline across a 7-0 UFC career. Yan has been favored on the UFC odds in every fight he has been in since making his UFC debut in 2018, with this fight against Sterling being the only fight that has seen him any lower than a -250 favorite.

UFC Betting Trends: Petr Yan

Petr Yan
Since 2018 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
Inside the Distance 4-3 +2.93u
to Win Outright 7-0 +1.99u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 4-3 +1.19u
to Win by Decision 3-4 +0.95u

Aljamain Sterling has an 11-3 record in the UFC, with 4 of those 11 coming by way of stoppage. While it doesn’t happen all that often, the best way to back Sterling in his UFC career has been on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, going 4-10 for +5.93 units profit. It has been incredibly difficult to defeat this guy in his UFC career, with the only fighter to do so being Marlon Moraes, who caught Aljo with a devastating counter knee to the head. Beyond that, even the two decision losses that Aljo has taken in his UFC career have been split-decisions. With all that being said, while Sterling has gone the distance in 8 of his 14 UFC bouts, the more profitable side has been the ‘No’ on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, going 6-8 for +2.64 units in his UFC career.

UFC Betting Trends: Aljamain Sterling

Aljamain Sterling
Since 2014 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
Inside the Distance 4-10 +5.93u
to Win Outright 11-3 +4.43u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 6-8 +2.46u
to Win by Decision 6-8 +1.87u
Under 5-9 +1.78u

The Under has been on a hot streak in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, going 31-28 for +13.8 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, any Under at the price of -111 or better has been a +EV wager worth making in this division long term.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 31-28 52.5% +13.86u -111
‘Coin Flips’ Favs 12-7 63.2% +2.12u -150
Favorites 40-17-2 67.8% +2.27u -211

The favorite in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division has dominated since the start of last year, going 40-17-2 for +2.27 units profit. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, there has been value on the favorite in this division at anything better than -211, going back to January of 2020.

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Prop Picks

This fight is as close as any fight you will ever see in the UFC, and it is taking place on the biggest stage, and is one of the most underlooked fights on this massive UFC 259 card. Again, to say that this fight is ‘too close to call’ is an absolute understatement. All you can do is carve out path to victories for both sides, and find out which one has the most value.

Aljamain Sterling’s path to victory sees him having a wrestle-heavy game plan that may lead to this fight taking place at a level we haven’t yet seen Petr Yan be tested at. If Sterling is able to smother Yan in the way that he was able to smother Corey Sandhagen, than there is definitely a ton of value on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop with Sterling at +250. However, if you are picking Sterling, there is a road less traveled, and that is simply betting him to win outright at +100. As we may see this fight go into the later rounds, and possibly even hit the scorecards.

As for Petr Yan, you can say almost the exact same thing, except his advantage in this fight will play out ultimately on the feet. While Sterling is a very advanced striker, Petr Yan’s boxing and hitting power is on a different level than Sterling’s, and if Aljo decides to sit in the pocket with Yan, this fight may be over quickly.

Both of these fighters have been most profitable on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop in their UFC careers. With that being said, if you’re unable to pick a side, you may as well just bet for violence, and take a hard crack at the ‘Under 3,5 at +110.

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