Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis: UFC Vegas 19 Prop Bets

Blaydes vs Lewis Prediction| Proppin’ You Up | UFC Vegas 19 Odds:  Derrick Lewis comes into Saturday night’s main event at UFC Vegas 19, having only lost by stoppage in 5 of his 20 UFC fights. It hasn’t exactly been a long shot wager to bet that Derrick Lewis gets finished in his career, with the highest return coming when Matt Mitrione did it in 2014, cashing at 2-1 odds on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Overall, betting that Lewis gets the job done, rather then does the job for someone else has been the more profitable wager, with Lewis winning 11 of his 20 UFC bouts by T/KO, profiting +2.47 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop.

On Saturday, Lewis comes in as a +380 underdog to Curtis ‘Rayzor’ Blaydes, who is currently lined at -160 to win ‘Inside the Distance’ against Derrick ‘the Black Beast’ Lewis. The Underdog has cashed in 20 of the last 47 UFC bouts in the Heavyweight division, going back to January of 2020, profiting +2.63 units along the way. Even over the last two years, the underdog has managed to cash at a 40% rate in the heavyweight division, going 36-52-2, since Jauary of 2019. Derrick Lewis comes in on the UFC Vegas 19 Odds board on Saturday as a +380 underdog to Curtis Blaydes.

Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis Odds

UFC Vegas 19 Props

Curtis Blaydes Derrick Lewis
To Win Outright -395 +379
Inside the Distance -160 +500
by Decision +333 +1200
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+114) Under 2.5 (-120)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: +250 No: -280

Curtis Blaydes has won 5 of his 12 fights by stoppage, but has failed to turn a profit with most of his five stoppage wins coming as the strong betting favorite. The best way to bet Blaydes in his UFC career has been on the decision prop, with just 4 of his 12 fights in the UFC going the distance.

UFC Betting Trends: Curtis Blaydes

Curtis Blaydes
Since 2016 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 4-7-1 +4.9u
to Win Outright 9-2-1 +1.48u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 8-4 +0.74u
Over 7-5 +0.74u

The best way to back Derrick Lewis in his career has also ironcially been on the deicison prop. With just four wins on the judege’s score cards, Lewis has profited +10.55 units in his UFC career on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop.

UFC Betting Trends: Derrick Lewis

Derrick Lewis
Since 2014 UFC Debut
UFC Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 4-16 +10.55u
to Win Outright 15-5 +8.22u
Over 11-9 +4.41u
to Win Inside the Distance 11-9 +2.47u
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance 16-4 +0.14u

Derrick Lewis has won 4 of his 20 UFC fights by decision, 20% of his fights, he is lined at +1200 to win by decision against Blaydes, even if the guys he beat by decision aren’t half the wrestler that Curtis Blaydes is, you’re still telling me there’s only a 7.7% chance that Lewis wins this fight by decision? That’s ridiculous. If you’re on the Lewis side, the true value in this fight is on the decision prop. So sprinkle as you see fit. If you want to just ride with the outright underdog, that’s not a terrible bet either. Derrick Lewis has a 41% ROI in his UFC career, going 15-5 for 8.22 units on the moneyline.

If you’re backing Curtis Blaydes, the real value is undoubtedly on the to win by decision prop at +333. Blaydes has 4 decision victories in his career, with a return of $41 per fight win or lose for a $100 bettor backing ‘Blaydes by Decision’ in every fight so far in his UFC career.

The two fighters have a combined record to the Over of 18-14, with Lewis going 11-9, and Blaydes going 7-5. The two share a combined profit on the ‘Over’ prop in their UFC careers of +7.04 units, an ROI of +22%.

The total opened at 1.5 Rounds, with the ‘Over’ selling at -135, which has now been bet up and priced out, sitting at the current number of -200 or higher. However, some books will give you an ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop at +110 (via Bet365) which is absolutely worth getting behind.

UFC Betting Trends: Heavyweight Division

Heavyweight Trends Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Since 2020: Underdogs 20-27 42.6% +2.63u +135
Since 2019: Underdogs 36-52 40% +1.53u +150
Since 2020: Over 25-22 53.2% +0.23u -114

The ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop is lined at +250, which is likely dissapointing because considering only 8 of these men’s combined 32 UFC fights have gone the distance, you would think you could be getting a better price than an implied 28.6% chance of it going the distance at +250, when the data has shown that 25% of their fights have gone the distance. Derrick Lewis has had 4 of his 20 UFC bouts go the distance, and Blaydes has had 4 of 12 go the distance. Basically, you’re better off picking a fighter to win by the judge’s score cards, than you are betting this prop, based on the implied odds, and in this case, the side with the better value is on Derrick Lewis.

Based on the division betting trends, the total is priced out after moving from -135 to -200 on the ‘Over 1.5’, as 25 of the last 47 heavyweight bouts in the UFC have gone ‘Over’ the betting total. A 53.2% win percentage since January of 2020. If you planned on backing Blaydes, but wanted to get some better value on his stoppage victory, the ‘Under 1.5’ at +175 might be worth a shot as well.


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FAQ: UFC Vegas 19

What are Derrick Lewis' chances of beating Curtis Blaydes?

Based on the current betting odds and implied probability, Derrick Lewis has a 22% chance of beating Curtis Blaydes.

Who is the biggest Favorite at UFC Vegas 19?

The biggest betting favorite on the UFC Vegas 19 card is in the heavyweight main event, as the #3 ranked heavyweight Curtis Blaydes is a -365 favorite over Derrick Lewis.

What time does UFC Vegas 19 start?

The preliminary card for UFC Vegas 19 starts at 5:00 PM ET on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+.