Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Is Choi a live underdog? Will he make Clint go against his “bromance” with Zalal? Clint breaks down the fight and how this line could be a great spot to punish those bookies.

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Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Seung Woo Cho

Youssef Zalal

To Win Outright +210 -220
Inside the Distance +505 +240
by Decision +400 +130
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-175) Under 2.5 (+179)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (-150) No (+145)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Youssef Zalal comes in as the strong favorite in this one, he is the #43 ranked featherweight in the world according to Tapology and is 3-1 in his last 4 fights in the UFC. Meanwhile, Seung Woo Choi comes in as the older fighter, with a significant height advantage, and is 1-2 in his UFC career.

Tale of the Tape: Choi vs Zalal

UFC Men’s Featherweight Seung Woo Choi Youssef Zalal
Record 8-3 10-3
Finish Rate 63% (5 Wins by T/KO) 70% (5 Wins by Submission)
Age 28 24
Height 6’0 5’10
Reach 74.5′ 75′

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet. 

The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at betting odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.

UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Profit (Units)
Over 43-17 +15.5u
Favorite 38-22 -3.45

The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Choi/Zalal fight is currently lined at -213, which is steep, but there is definitely value on this prop based on the division betting trends. 

Zalal is a -242 betting favorite currently, with Choi on the come back at +187. Based on the current price, there is value on Choi as he is beyond the buy-price of a ‘fade play’ on the favorite. While Zalal likely wins this fight, there is a ton of line value on Choi and ‘long term’ is the right play to make.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u
UFC Vegas 20 Picks