Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Is Choi a live underdog? Will he make Clint go against his “bromance” with Zalal? Clint breaks down the fight and how this line could be a great spot to punish those bookies.
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Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Odds
UFC Vegas 18
Seung Woo Cho
|To Win Outright||+210||-220|
|Inside the Distance||+505||+240|
|Total Rounds||Over 2.5 (-175)||Under 2.5 (+179)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (-150)||No (+145)|
|Where/When||UFC Apex, Las Vegas||Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET|
Youssef Zalal comes in as the strong favorite in this one, he is the #43 ranked featherweight in the world according to Tapology and is 3-1 in his last 4 fights in the UFC. Meanwhile, Seung Woo Choi comes in as the older fighter, with a significant height advantage, and is 1-2 in his UFC career.
Tale of the Tape: Choi vs Zalal
|UFC Men’s Featherweight||Seung Woo Choi||Youssef Zalal|
|Finish Rate||63% (5 Wins by T/KO)||70% (5 Wins by Submission)|
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet.
The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at betting odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.
UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Profit (Units)|
The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Choi/Zalal fight is currently lined at -213, which is steep, but there is definitely value on this prop based on the division betting trends.
Zalal is a -242 betting favorite currently, with Choi on the come back at +187. Based on the current price, there is value on Choi as he is beyond the buy-price of a ‘fade play’ on the favorite. While Zalal likely wins this fight, there is a ton of line value on Choi and ‘long term’ is the right play to make.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
|Since 2021||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)|
|Fight Goes Distance||21-14||60%||+9.34u|
|Fight Doesn’t Go Distance||14-21||57.1%||-9.42u|