Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Jerome Rivera steps up to the last-minute challenge to face Ode Osbourne for UFC Vegas 18. LOTN and Cody analyze this matchup and take a look at the odds looking for that perfect play to make on this fight.

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Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Ode Osbourne

Jerome Rivera

To Win Outright -200 +185
Inside the Distance +137 +450
by Decision +260 +420
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+110) Under 2.5 (+110)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+135) No (-130)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Ode Osbourne is coming in with an 8-3 record, with a 88% finish rate, picking up 4 of his 8 victories by way of submission. Jerome Rivera is 10-4, with a 70% finish rate and is coming into this bout with 7 of his 10 wins coming by way of submission.

Tale of the Tape: Osbourne vs Rivera

UFC Men’s Featherweight Ode Osbourne Jerome Rivera
Record 8-3 10-4
Finish Rate 88% (4 Wins by Submission) 70% (7 Wins by Submission)
Age 29 25
Height 5’7 5’10
Reach 72′ 72.5′

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet. 

The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.

UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Profit (Units)
Over 43-17 +15.5u
Favorite 38-22 -3.45

The current price on the ‘Over 2.5’ in the Osbourne/Rivera fight is lined around the +100 range. Ode Osbourne is lined as a -207 favorite, with the come back on Jerome Rivera sitting at around just +163. As far as the odds for betting a side goes, this fight is somewhat priced out.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u
UFC 260 Odds Post Show