Perry vs Gall Predictions – UFC Vegas 4 Breakdown

Perry vs Gall predictions for a fight I can honestly say that I didn’t see coming. This fight came out of left field and you have to wonder who came up with it and who is benefiting from this matchup. Is this a fight that was put together only because that’s who was available with the COVID crisis? I have NO idea, but I will dig into the details for you and see if we can find a way to make money on this UFC Vegas 4 fight.

Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall: Odds

#UFCVegas4 Welterweight Bout Mike Perry Mickey Gall
To Win Outright -303 +240

Nobody ever accused Mike Perry of being smart, but the dude can fight. Perry is a hard nosed brawler who walks his opponents down and has heavy hands. He will be facing a thinker in Mickey Gall who is a grappler and submission fighter. The two couldn’t be more polar opposites and that’s what makes this fight so interesting.

Perry vs Gall: The Fighters

Fighter Mike Perry
Odds -303
Age 28 years old
Height 5’10
Reach 71’
Wins by KO/TKO 11
Win/Loss 8-2
Finish Rate 85%

“Platinum” Mike Perry is a wild man. There’s no other way to describe him. He came into the UFC and put the world on notice with his big power and big mouth straight away. Since his initial killing spree at 170 Perry has fallen on tough times and is now 1-3 in his last 4. Mike Perry is coming off a badly broken nose and a split decision loss to Vicente Luque and a really harsh KO loss to Geoff Neal.

UFC Vegas 4 Predictions Mickey Gall

(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Mike is the kind of fighter who is so fun and entertaining that the UFC won’t be cutting him after a 3rd loss, but you still never want to fall that far. We have seen Mike compete with an extremely high level of competition and he is getting a massive step down here against Gall. I am still having a hard time getting to the window with Perry however because of his current mental state. Posting videos of his hands busted and bloody, talking about his new girlfriend and calling her god, and training with a white and blue belt rather than Jacare… Perry seems to have lost his mind.

Fighter Mickey Gall
Odds +240
Age 28 years old
Height 6’2
Reach 74’
Wins by Submission 5
Win/Loss 8-2
Finish Rate 83%

Mickey Gall was supposed to be the next big thing. He was the first fighter ever discovered on Dana White Lookin For a Fight and started his UFC career with a bang taking out Mike Jackson, CM Punk, and Sage Northcutt. It seemed like the UFC had found something, but Gall failed to improve. When the fight hits the mat Gall is a wizard, but he doesn’t have many tools to get it there.

Gall’s striking is mediocre at best and he isn’t much of a wrestler. On top of the previously mentioned flaws, Gall has a really bad gas tank. He gasses in the 2nd or 3rd round of every single fight if he doesn’t get that early sub and he has only been able to finish non-UFC talent so far in his career. I think this fight is put up or shut up time for Gall.

Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall: The Matchup

I really wanted to be the smartest guy in the room and tell you I was betting on Mickey Gall to pull off the biggest upset of his career and take out Mike Perry. Especially given all the struggles Mike is currently facing he seems to be ripe for the taking, but the fact of the matter is Gall lacks the skills to take advantage. Going from fighting Luque and Neal to Gall is a near insulting step down and in my opinion, signals that the UFC has given up on Gall and is ready to throw him to the wolves so that Perry can get back on track.

Perry should absolutely eat Gall’s lunch on the feet and unless he has completely lost his senses and gone all Diego Sanchez on us (which I am not completely ruling out) he should be able to defend the takedown attempts of Gall and stay out of submission trouble. If Gall can’t get this fight to the mat he simply has no path to victory and you do not want to be under Mike Perry.

Poirier vs Hooker predictions

If you think back to the TKO that Sanchez scored over Gall I fully expect this to look very similar once Gall runs out of steam. The issue is there’s still no value there. Perry is -303 straight and -215 to win by KO. The bookmaker sees the writing on the wall here as much as we do. I would suggest using Perry in parlays but I don’t like how unstable he is and trusting him tied to another fighter just seems reckless to me. All things considered, this fight is very likely a pass for me, but if you need action on it I would look to the over.

They have the total set at 1.5 right now and you can get -120 for the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and that’s where I think there’s some value. Gall is durable as long as he has some gas in the tank and Mike has a head made of… well… Platinum. I don’t think Gall can get an early finish and if Perry plays this defensively and drags the fight out a bit I think we get into late round 2 or early round 3 and Perry takes over at that point.

The Pick: Perry vs Gall Over 1.5 -120