Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Clint breaks down how and why he thinks that Danilo Marques might have the edge over Mike Rodriguez.
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Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Odds
UFC Vegas 18
|To Win Outright||-225||+205|
|Inside the Distance||-149||+375|
|Total Rounds||Over 1.5 (+105)||Under 2.5 (-115)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+275)||No (-345)|
|Where/When||UFC Apex, Las Vegas||Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET|
Mike Rodriguez comes into this fight riding a 2-2-1 slide in his last 5 UFC bouts. The 32-year-old fighting out of Massachusetts will have a heavy 5-inch reach advantage over Marques, despite being 2 inches shorter.
Marques comes into this bout coming off a win in his debut appearance in the UFC about four months ago. The Brazillian fighting out of Vila da Luta will be a sizable underdog to the UFC veteran Rodriguez.
Tale of the Tape: Rodriguez vs Marques
|UFC Light Heavyweight||Mike Rodriguez||Danilo Marques|
|Finish Rate||100% (9 Wins by T/KO)||80% (4 Wins by T/KO)|
The favorite in the UFC Light-Heavyweight division has won 24 of the last 36 UFC bouts dating back to January of 2020, profiting for just +0.38 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, a bet on a favorite in this weight-class at -185 or better has been a +EV play over the last year.
Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ at 205lbs in the UFC has gone 41-37-1 for -0.3 units since January of 2019, and 19-18 for -0.18 units since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trends, the Under in Light Heavyweight at the price of -106 or better over the last 13 months has been a value bet to make, especially considering it’s proven to be about a 50/50 position over the long term.
UFC Light-Heavyweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy Price|
Mike Rodriguez comes into Saturday’s bout as a -247 favorite, well outside of the buy price for favorites in this division. In fact, with a turn around on Danilo Marques at +190, you’re getting value fading a fighter that should only win about 6.5 times out of 10, but it is lined like he would win 7 out of 10. While the path to victory for Marques is slim, it’s a far better bargain than the price you’re getting on MRod at -250.
As for the total, this one sits at 1.5 with the chalk sitting on both sides of the prop. If you were able to get atleast -105, there would probably be some value on the Under here, but with the Over lined globally at around -110, and the Under at about -115, you’re paying the bookies bills no matter how you bet this prop. The total is a total pass.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
|Since 2021||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)|
|Fight Goes Distance||21-14||60%||+9.34u|
|Fight Doesn’t Go Distance||14-21||57.1%||-9.42u|