Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Clint breaks down how and why he thinks that Danilo Marques might have the edge over Mike Rodriguez.

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Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Mike Rodriguez

Danilo Marques

To Win Outright -225 +205
Inside the Distance -149 +375
by Decision +650 +550
Total Rounds Over 1.5 (+105) Under 2.5 (-115)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+275) No (-345)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Mike Rodriguez comes into this fight riding a 2-2-1 slide in his last 5 UFC bouts. The 32-year-old fighting out of Massachusetts will have a heavy 5-inch reach advantage over Marques, despite being 2 inches shorter.

Marques comes into this bout coming off a win in his debut appearance in the UFC about four months ago. The Brazillian fighting out of Vila da Luta will be a sizable underdog to the UFC veteran Rodriguez.

Tale of the Tape: Rodriguez vs Marques

UFC Light Heavyweight Mike Rodriguez Danilo Marques
Record 11-5 10-2
Finish Rate 100% (9 Wins by T/KO) 80% (4 Wins by T/KO)
Age 32 35
Height 6’4 6’6
Reach 82.5 77.5′

The favorite in the UFC Light-Heavyweight division has won 24 of the last 36 UFC bouts dating back to January of 2020, profiting for just +0.38 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, a bet on a favorite in this weight-class at -185 or better has been a +EV play over the last year.

Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ at 205lbs in the UFC has gone 41-37-1 for -0.3 units since January of 2019, and 19-18 for -0.18 units since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trends, the Under in Light Heavyweight at the price of -106 or better over the last 13 months has been a value bet to make, especially considering it’s proven to be about a 50/50 position over the long term.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Favorites 24-12-1 64.9% +0.38u -185
Under 19-18 51.4% -0.18u -106

Mike Rodriguez comes into Saturday’s bout as a -247 favorite, well outside of the buy price for favorites in this division. In fact, with a turn around on Danilo Marques at +190, you’re getting value fading a fighter that should only win about 6.5 times out of 10, but it is lined like he would win 7 out of 10. While the path to victory for Marques is slim, it’s a far better bargain than the price you’re getting on MRod at -250.

As for the total, this one sits at 1.5 with the chalk sitting on both sides of the prop. If you were able to get atleast -105, there would probably be some value on the Under here, but with the Over lined globally at around -110, and the Under at about -115, you’re paying the bookies bills no matter how you bet this prop. The total is a total pass.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u
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