Martin Day vs Timur Valiev Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
Martin Day vs. Timur Valiev Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Martin Day steps up to the last minute opportunity and will now face Timur Valiev at UFC Vegas 18. Check out the above video as we see the Cody Saftic and LOTN break it down for us.
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Martin Day vs. Timur Valiev Odds
UFC Vegas 18
|To Win Outright||+320||-325|
|Inside the Distance||+450||+110|
|Total Rounds||Over 2.5 (-105)||Under 2.5 (-125)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+115)||No (-155)|
|Where/When||UFC Apex, Las Vegas||Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET|
Martin Day made his first UFC appearance via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. Day lost a unanimous decision to Jaime Alvarez, did not receive a contract, and went back to fighting in Destiny MMA, winning the URCC Bantamweight title in 2018. A few months later, Day returned to the big stage at UFC Fight Night 141, losing a split decision to Pingyuan Liu.
A rough string of injuries kept Day inactive for 2019 and into 2020, he made his return to the octagon at UFC 251 on Fight Island in a Bantamweight division bout against English-man Davey Grant, losing to Grant by knockout in the first round. In November of 2020, Day became one of the few fighters to compete at both Fight Island and the Apex Center but didn’t get the outcome he was looking for, losing to Anderson dos Santos by guillotine choke in the first round.
Tale of the Tape: Day vs Valiev
|UFC Men’s Featherweight||Martin Day||Timur Valiev|
|Finish Rate||63% (3 Wins by T/KO)||44% (5 Wins by T/KO)|
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet.
The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.
Timur Valiev is currently a -397 betting favorite, which is well outside of the buy price for there to be any value on him in this fight. On the come back you are getting Martin Day at +293, which is well beyond that buy price based on the division betting trends, and there is probably some value on Day at almost 3-1 odds.
The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently lined at -109, as the market is seemingly expecting Valiev to win this fight the hard way and take it to the distance. Based on the division betting trends, there is a ton of value on the Over in this fight at the current price.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy Price|
Based on the UFC betting odds, the best way to bet this fight if you were going to do so is definitely by backing Martin Day at +320. Timur Valiev is coming off a very tough loss to Trevin Jones, which was later overturned due to a no contest because of a positive drug test. Yet at the end of the day, the books paid out on Jones winning as a heavy underdog, a fight that saw Valiev lined as a heavy -600 favorite. With Day coming into this bout with essentially nothing to lose, and Valiev coming off a crushing loss in his UFC debut, you have to give a bit of an edge to Martin Day, especially considering where the odds are currently..
2021 UFC Betting Trends
|Since 2021||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)|
|Fight Goes Distance||21-14||60%||+9.34u|
|Fight Doesn’t Go Distance||14-21||57.1%||-9.42u|