Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: In another late inute replacement fight for this Saturday, Karol Rosa will take on Joselyn Edwards. Join in as Cody Saftin and LOTN break it down and make their pick for this fight.

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Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Karol Rosa

Joselyn Edwards

To Win Outright -210 +205
Inside the Distance +335 +450
by Decision +105 +385
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-225) Under 2.5 (+205)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (-200) No (+175)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Both of these women come into this bout having won 4 of their last 5 fights. Rosa is 2-0 in the UFC, while Edwards is coming off a successful debut against Yanan Wu two weeks ago. Rosa is the slightly older fighter, whole Edwards holds a distinct reach and height advantage on the Brazillian Rosa.

Tale of the Tape: Rosa vs Edwards

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Karol Rosa Joselyn Edwards
Record 13-3 10-2
Finish Rate 46% (4 Wins by T/KO) 80% (5 Wins by T/KO)
Age 26 25
Height 5’5 5’8
Reach 67.5′ 70′

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division has cashed in 21 of the last 22 bouts at women’s 135lbs, profiting +7.54 units. At this point, you would have to bet betting at odds of +2000 or better to have any value on the Under at women’s bantamweight. Meanwhile, the favorite has gone 15-7 in the last 22 UFC women’s bantamweight bouts, with the chalk fighter profiting +0.41 units along the way. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, there would be a value on a favorite in this division at the price of -214 or better.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 21-1 95.5% +7.54u -2122
Favorites 15-7 68.2% +0.41u -214

The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Rosa/Edwards fight is currently lined at a bargain price of around -240. There is a ton of value on this prop at that number and would be a perfect parlay piece to add to another +EV chalk line.

Karol Rosa is lined at betting odds of -234 as the moderate favorite, which is outside of the buy price for betting on a favorite in this division. On the comeback, Edwards is a +180 underdog, and while Edwards seems to be a live dog in this fight, you would need closer to +215 to be able to make a confident play on an underdog in this division.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u
Jairzinho Rozenstruik