Julian Erosa vs Nate Landwehr Pick: UFC Vegas 19 Predictions

Julian Erosa vs Nate Landwehr Pick – UFC Vegas 19 Predictions: Julian Erosa comes into Saturday’s UFC Vegas 19 bout with a 2-4 record in the UFC. He is a pick’em favorite against the former M-1 Featherweight Champion, Nate Landwehr, who comes into Saturday’s bout with a 1-1 record in the UFC.

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Julian Erosa vs Nate Landwehr Odds

UFC Vegas 19

Julian Erosa

Nate Landwehr

To Win Outright -102 -102
Inside the Distance +225 +255
by Decision +300 +290
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-108) Under 2.5 (-105)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+105) No (-130)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 20th, 5:00 PM ET

Erosa (24-8) looks to build off his upset win last year over Sean Woodson, where he cashed as a nearly 3-1 underdog in the matchup. The 31-year-old hasn’t fought since June of last year due to injuries and complications from COVID-19 where his lungs needed more time to recover.

Landwehr (14-3) was slated to fight Movsar Evloev in December before a positive COVID-19 test forced the Russian fighter out of the matchup. Landwehr himself got COVID-19 last September, which took him out of his fight against Shane Young at UFC 253. The 32-year-old last competed against Darren Elkins at UFC Fight Night in May, where he picked up his first UFC victory.

Like the odds suggest this is a pick’em fight, however, I’m siding with slight underdog Landwehr here. Outside of his forgettable UFC debut last year against Herbert Burns, Landwehr has looked outstanding and has fought tough competition outside of the UFC when he was previously the champ for M1-Global. Boasting 8 of his 14 career wins by knockout, Landwehr I believe is the superior striker, and should this fight stay on the feet I give him the edge there. Erosa has been knocked out four times in his career and I could see the same happening here against “Nate The Train” I’ll take Landwehr as the slight -105 underdog.

Tale of the Tape: Erosa vs Landwehr

UFC Men’s Featherweights Julian Erosa Nate Landwehr
Record 24-8 14-3
Finish Rate 88% (11 Wins by Submission) 57% (8 Wins by T/KO)
Age 31 32
Height 6’1 5’9
Reach 74.5′ 70.5′

Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr is 1-1 in the UFC, but is the former M-1 Featherweight Champion, where he put together a 5-0 record in that promotion before moving back to America and getting the shot in the UFC. His opponent, Jullian Erosa, is the slightly younger, and significantly taller of the two, with Erosa coming in at 6’1, while Landwehr is listed as a stout 5’9.

In his two fights in the UFC, Landwehr has landed more significant strikes per minute than Erosa at 6.89 to 4.92, and has a 50% accuracy rating, compared to Erosa’s 46%. The main difference may be that Landwehr has absorbed far more significant strikes per minute at 7.22 to Erosa’s 5.67, but that may be more of an indication of Landwehr’s chin, and his ability to take a shot to give a shot when in the pocket. This is a fighter that was standing in the pocket with Darren Elkins back in May, trading shots with him and screaming Dana White’s name. It goes without saying, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr is a fighter for the fans, and is willing to take damage to give damage whenever given the opportunity.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 46-18 71.9% +16.32 -256
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 9-6 60% +0.89u -150

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has been one of the most profitable betting trends over the last 13 months, cashing at a 71.9% rate, with a 46-18 record for +16.32 units profit. Going back even further, the ‘Over’ has cashed at an even more consistent rate going back to January of 2019, with the ‘Over’ prop going 82-42, for +15.5 units profit, over the last two years. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ at the price of -256 or better is a +EV wager to make in this division. Currently, the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop sits at -108, well within the suggested buy price for wagering on this prop.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Fight Goes Distance 34-23 59.6% +10.26u
Over 40-17 70.2% +9.54u
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 9-6 60% +1.19u
Underdogs 21-36 36.8% +0.41u
Jairzinho Rozenstruik