Alexey Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus Pick: UFC Vegas 19 Predictions

Alexey Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus Pick: UFC Vegas 19 Predictions: UFC Vegas 19 is a proving ground. We have several fights where a hot young gun is getting a big step up in competition, and so far in the UFC, the fighters who have taken that first step up or have been the “hype train” have not fared well. Chris Daukaus is an up-and-coming heavyweight talent who is facing the oldest dog and gatekeeper the UFC has to offer in Alexei Oleinik. Is Daukaus ready for the established elite of the UFC’s heavyweight division, or will old man Oleinik clam another neck? 

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Alexey Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus Odds

UFC Vegas 19

Alexey Oleinik

Chris Daukaus

To Win Outright +175 -178
Inside the Distance +230 -135
by Decision +930 +800
Total Rounds Over 1.5 (+148) Under 1.5 (-161)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (+410) No (-450)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 20th, 5:00 PM ET

The Boa Constrictor is a man possessed. I have no idea how he has 73 professional fights and can still dress himself in the morning. This man’s ability is frankly inhuman, and the fact that he is still competing at the highest level of the sport at 43 is nothing short of legendary. Oleinik has a squeeze like none other, and all it takes is one chance for him to get his hands on you for him to end your night. They call him the Boa Constrictor for a reason. Aleksei Oleinik is the underdog on Saturday, but all it takes is one slip from Daukaus, and this fight could be over. 

Chris Daukaus is a problem. I fully expect this young fighter to be a big name in the very near future. The first time we saw Daukaus, he surprised us all with just how athletic he was. The speed of Chris’s hands and the accuracy of his punches is something we were not prepared for. When you consider that Chris Daukaus was initially billed as a BJJ practitioner due to his black belt, he comes into the UFC. He registers back-to-back first-round knockouts surprise that people quickly took notice. Since our first look at Chris, he has embraced the professional fighter’s life and has focused heavily on his strength and conditioning, and we have already seen the start of a transformation into a monster. 

Tale of the Tape: Oleinik vs Daukaus

UFC Heavyweights Alexey Oleinik Chris Daukaus
Record 59-14-1 10-3
Finish Rate 92% (46 Wins by Submission) 90% (9 Wins by T/KO)
Age 43 31
Height 6’2 6’3
Reach 80′ 76′

Both of these men are very talented on the mat holding BJJ black belts. Oleynik has 46 submissions so far in his MMA career and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. The experience edge for Alexey Oleynik is a huge factor, and you have to wonder how long the aging fighter can continue taking on these young guns. 

Chris Daukaus is a very talented boxer who is just getting better and changing his physical attributes to give him yet another weapon in the cage. We have already seen the speed, power, and patience of Daukaus on display, and we can expect that will only improve. When you combine the raw talent of Daukaus with the black belt, we have yet to be able to see him put it to work in the cage; you can imagine what the finished product of this athlete will look like.

Alexey Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus Pick Pick:

UFC Vegas 19 Best Bets – Oleinik/Daukaus Under 1.5 (-188 via Bet365): After talking about the different ways, both of these fighters stand out and what they can win the fight, you might be a little disappointed to find out that my favorite bet on this fight is not a fighter. While I expect this fight to end with Chris Daukaus’s hand raised, the better play is the under. We have seen that Aleksei Oleinik, in his older age, does not have the best gas tank, and he has dealt with some durability issues. Even with those issues in round 1, Oleinik is a monster. Chris Daukaus has all the offense in the world, and while I have talked about his having a black belt, we have yet to see it on display.

Without proving the worth of that black belt, we can assume that Oleinik can submit him. The real issue is the chin of Oleinik. The hand speed of Daukaus and the power that the young fighter is showing is what will cause the biggest issue for the aging veteran. Oleinik can’t wrestle. The older man relies on clubbing his opponents to the floor or pinning them against the cage and pulling guard to get the fight to the floor. I don’t see this style having much success on Daukaus, who is more than willing to move backward, circle, and fire three shots down the pipe right to the chin. I fully expect a first-round KO for Chris Daukaus, but just in case Oleinik pulls another fast one on us, let’s lay the chalk and make sure no matter who wins, as long as it comes early, we will cash a ticket.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

UFC Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Underdogs 20-27 42.6% +2.63u +135
Over 25-22 53.2% +0.23u -114

The underdog in the UFC Heavyweight division has marginally profitable over the last two years. Since 2019, the heavyweight underdog has gone 36-52-2 for +1.53 units profit, and 20-27 for +2.63 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, with a 42.6% win percentage over the last 13 months, the underdog in this division at the price of +135 or better would be a +EV bet worth making. Alexey Oleinik is currently listed on the UFC odds boards as a +150 underdog, well within the suggested buy price.

Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Heavyweight division has gone 25-22 since January of 2020, profiting for a marginal +0.23 units along the way. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at -114 or better is a bet worth making long term. The ‘Over 1.5 rounds’ prop in this fight is currently lined at +136, with the betting market expecting a quick finish between these two fighters, one way or another.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Fight Goes Distance 34-23 59.6% +10.26u
Over 40-17 70.2% +9.54u
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 9-6 60% +1.19u
Underdogs 21-36 36.8% +0.41u
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