Gastelum vs Heinisch Pick: UFC 258 the Final Weigh-In

Gastelum vs Heinisch Pick: UFC 258 the Final Weigh-In: Ian Heinisch has won two of his six career UFC bouts on the judge’s scorecards, cashing on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop for a profit of +6.55 units for his backers. Heinisch has a 4-2 UFC record, with his only two losses coming by way of decision, at UFC 258 he takes on UFC veteran and former Middleweight #1 contender, Kelvin Gastelum.

Gastelum, who is coming off three straight losses, has an 11-6 UFC record, with 5 of those 11 wins coming by way of decision. The betting market expects his fight with Heinisch on Saturday to go the full fifteen minutes, as the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: Yes’ prop is lined on the UFC odds board at the steep price of -189.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch Odds

UFC 258

Kelvin Gastelum Ian Heinisch
To Win Outright -200 +190
Inside the Distance +300 +660
by Decision +120 +400
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-238) Under 2.5 (+220)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: -189 No: +175
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 13th, 10:00 PM ET

Clint MacLean from the DieHardMMA Podcast breaks down the feature bout for UFC 258 with special guest Matt Holt. 

Tale of the Tape: Gastelum vs Heinisch

UFC Middleweights Kelvin Gastelum Ian Heinisch
Record 16-6 14-3
Finish Rate 67% (6 Wins by T/KO) 50% (5 Wins by T/KO)
Age 29 32
Height 5’9 5’11
Reach 71.5′ 72′

Heinisch comes in as the older fighter by three years but has a fraction of the octagon time that Gastelum has. Heinisch has a total of 2 hours and 45 minutes of total fight time in his professional career, while Gastelum has a stunning 3 hours and 55 minutes, at just 29 years of age. Gastelum gives up a significant height, reach and leg reach advantage against Heinisch in this fight, but Heinich statistically has been far more accurate over his career, with 52% of his strikes landing, compared to Gastelum’s 43%.

UFC Betting Trends: Ian Heinisch

Ian Heinisch: Since 2018 (DWCS) UFC Debut Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 2-4 +6.55u
Fight Goes the Distance 4-2 +3.71u
Opp. to Win by Decision 2-4 +1.7u
to Win Outright
(Since 2017 LFA Debut)
8-3 +2.21u
to Win Inside the Distance 2-4 +1.24u
Over 4-2 +1.21u

The best way to back Heinisch in his UFC career has been on the decision prop, which has cashed both times with ‘the Hurricane’ lined as the betting underdog. Four of Heinisch’s six fights have gone the distance, with his opponent picking the two other decision victories, cashing for +1.7 units profit on the fade of Heinisch. Dating back to his 2017 debut in LFA, Heinisch is 8-3 on the moneyline, for +2.21 units profit.

UFC Betting Trends: Kelvin Gastelum

Kelvin Gastelum: Since 2013 UFC Debut Record Profit (Units)
to Win by Decision 5-12 +6.66u
Fight Goes the Distance 9-8 +3.55u
to Win Outright 11-6 +3.17u
Opp. to Win by Decision 4-13 +1.78u
Over 11-6 +2.24u
to Win Inside the Distance 6-11 +1.42u

Even though Kelvin Gastelum has only 5 wins by decision in the UFC, it has been the most profitable way to back him throughout his career in the octagon. Gastelum has profited +6.6 units on the ‘Decision’ prop, with 9 of his 17 UFC bouts going the distance, and 11 of 17 going ‘Over’ the betting total.

UFC Betting Trends: Middleweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 29-22 56.9% +8.38u -132
Favorites 35-16 68.6% +0.81u -218

The ‘Under’ in the UFC Middleweight division has cashed in 29 of the last 51 fights, cashing for +8.38 units. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the ‘Under’ in this division at the buy price of -132 or better would be a profitable bet to make long term. Meanwhile, the favorite has 35-16 since January of 2020, for a marginal profit of just under a unit. With a 68.6% win percentage, based on implied probability and the division betting trend, you would need to be getting a price of +218 or better to successfully fade the favorite long term in the men’s 185lbs division.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch Pick

If you plan to bet Kelvin Gastelum in this fight, it seems as though the most bettable spot has to be on the decision prop at +120. Gastelum has only gone to decision five times in his UFC career but has cashed for big plus money scores every time he’s done so, and the books have caught on. If your pick in this one is ‘the Hurricane’ Ian Heinisch, you could be greedy and take him to win by decision at 4-1 odds. Two of Heinisch’s four UFC wins have come by way of decision, and with the market seeing a ton of juice on the ‘Over’ in this fight, you’re getting a ton of value at 4-1, if the fight going the distance is a foregone conclusion. However, the smarter play, and maybe the best bet on this fight is to simply back Heinisch on the moneyline.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik