Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar Pick | the Final Weigh-In

Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar Pick | the Final Weigh-In: Frankie Edgar has gone 18-8-1 over his last 27 UFC bouts, and has profited his backers a whopping +18.84 units throughout the last 13 years of fighting. On Saturday, Edgar makes his way to the octagon in hopes of ensuring himself a chance at the Bantamweight title, as he faces 135lbs contender Cory Sandhagen.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Cory Sandhagen Frankie Edgar
To Win Outright -345 +335
Inside the Distance +200 +1205
by Decision +105 +550
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-220) Under 2.5 (+200)
Fight Goes Distance Yes: -140 No: +165
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Edgar comes into Saturday night’s fight having 3 of his last 5 bouts but is coming off a huge win over Pedro Munhoz that arguably puts him within striking reach of a title shot with a win. The Toms River, New Jersey product out of Ricardo Almeida’s Jiu-Jitsu gym will try to capture a victory for the 25th time in his MMA career on Saturday, while the only thing in his way is the 13-2, 28-year-old and heavy favorite Cory ‘the Sandman’ Sandhagen.

Tale of the Tape: Sandhagen vs Edgar

UFC Bantamweights Cory Sandhagen Frankie Edgar
Record 13-2 24-8-1
Finish Rate 61% (5 Wins by T/KO) 46% (29 Wins by T/KO)
Age 28 39
Height 5’11 5’6
Reach 70′ 68′

While the 18 wins in his last 27 pro-fights in extremely impressive, what’s even more impressive is the way Edgar has been able to do it. Frankie Edgar has only 4 finishes in his last 15 profights, with 10 those 15 going ‘Over’ the betting total, and 9 of them reaching the judge’s scorecards.

UFC Betting Trends: Sandhagen vs Edgar

Frankie Edgar
Since 2012
Record Profit (Units)
to Win Outright
(Since 2007 UFC Debut)
18-8-1 +18.84u
Inside the Distance 4-11 +3.4u
Over 10-5 +1.78u
Fight Goes Distance 9-6 +1.58u
Cory Sandhagen
Since 2018
Record Profit (Units)
Under 5-2 +4.69u
to Win Outright 6-1 +3.57u
Inside the Distance 4-3 +3.03u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 5-2 +2.68u

Meanwhile, with an incredibly small sample size in comparison to Frankie Edgar, Sandhagen is on a completely different path as far as the way he’s managed to get wins in the octagon.

Sandhagen is 6-1 in the UFC going back to 2018, with 4 of those 7 victories coming by way of stoppage. Sandhagen has only gone the distance in 2 of his 7 UFC bouts, with the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go Distance’ prop going 5-2 for +2.68 units in Sandhagen’s UFC career.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 29-26 52.7% +12.64u -111
Favorites 37-16-1 67.3% +1.63u -206

In the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division, the ‘Under’ has cashed in 29 of the last 55 bouts going back to January of 2020, profiting for +12.64 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, any ‘Under’ at the price of -111 or better in this division has been worth backing as a +EV bet.

As far as the side, the favorite at men’s 135lbs has gone 37-16-1 for +1.63 units profit over the last 13 months. While the profit margin is not overwhelming by any means, you are still finding value on the favorite in this division at the price of -206 or better.

Cory Sandhagen comes into this bout as the heavy -415 favorite, well beyond the buy price of implied value at Bantamweight. However, on the comeback, you are getting Frankie Edgar at betting odds of +305. Without question, there is a substantial amount of value on Edgar in this spot. For Cory Sandhagen at -415, you’re betting that the kid picks up the victory 8 out of 10 times that these fighters face off. That is just not a backable concept, and you’re getting a price on a fighter that is expected to win 3 out of 10 times, but the books are paying a return on a fighter that should win just 2 out of 10 times.

As for the total, the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently priced at +167, which is well into the range of implied value.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u
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