Casey O’Neill vs Shana Dobson Pick: UFC Vegas 19 Predictions

Casey O’Neill vs Shana Dobson Pick: UFC Vegas 19 Predictions: The undefeated Scot Casey O’Neill comes into UFC Vegas 19 with a 5-0 record, and is taking on Shana Dobson, who is coming off the biggest upset win in 2020. O’Neill comes in as the -140 favorite, making her UFC debut against Shana Dobson, who has just 2 wins in her last 5 bouts, but is coming off an incredible upset victory over Mariya Agapova last year.

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Casey O’Neill vs Shana Dobson Odds

UFC Vegas 19

Casey O’Neill

Shana Dobson

To Win Outright -140 +130
Inside the Distance +400 +415
by Decision +140 +255
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-239) Under 2.5 (+214)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (-215) No (+214)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 20th, 5:00 PM ET

O’Neill (5-0) makes her long-awaited UFC debut after amassing a perfect record fighting for both the Eternal MMA and UAE Warrior’s promotions. With the pandemic travel restrictions making it difficult to train in Thailand, O’Neill moved her camp to Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas ahead of the matchup.

Dobson (4-4) will be looking for back-to-back wins for the first time in her career. The Ultimate Fighter Season 26 veteran is coming off one of the biggest upsets of 2020 when she finished heavy favorite Mariya Agapova in the second-round at UFC Fight Night in August.

It’s rare for the UFC to sign a fighter in O’Neill with just five-fights, especially not through the Contender Series so the promotion must feel there is a ton of upside here. But I can’t ignore the experience of Dobson in this matchup, having five appearances in the Octagon, plus an entire season of “The Ultimate Fighter” under her belt. We’ve seen massive improvements in Dobson since leaving D.C. to train at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. While I think if this fight stays on the feet, you’d give the edge to O’Neill, especially being a product of one of the best striking gyms in the sport at Tiger Muay Thai. However, there is plenty of value on Dobson, and don’t be surprised, the longer the fight goes that the 31-year-old pulls off another upset here. My pick will be O’Neill but the value on this fight for sure is on Dobson, especially at +130 on the UFC odds boards.

Tale of the Tape: O’Neill vs Dobson

UFC Women’s Flyweight Casey O’Neill Shana Dobson
Record 5-0 4-4
Finish Rate 40% (1 Win by T/KO) 50% (2 Wins by T/KO)
Age 23 31
Height 5’6 5’6
Reach Not Listed 69′

Shana Dobson is the sizable underdog in this one, but comes into this fight with both the age and experience edge. Dobson has a 2-3 record in the UFC, and has been lined as the betting underdog in 3 of those 5 fights. Meanwhile, Casey O’Neill has strung together five straight victories to start her MMA career, and is coming off a stoppage victory in her last fight in September of 2020 against Christinia Stelliou at UAE Warriors 13.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Underdogs 16-22 42.1% +12.1u +138
Under 15-23 39.5% +4.29u +153

The underdog has been on an absolute roll in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division over the past 13 months, a big part of that is due to the +770 long shot moneyline that Shana Dobson cashed at in August of last year. Since January of 2020, the dog has gone 16-22 for +12.1 units profit. With a 42.1% win percentage, based on the betting trend and using implied probability, the underdog in this division at the price of +138 or better is a +EV bet worth making. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has also been a profitable trend to back in this division, going 15-23 over the last 13 months, for +4.29 units profit along the way. Based on the trend, implied probability says that any ‘Under’ in this division at +153 or better is a bet worth making long term. Currently, the ‘Under 2.5’ in this fight is lined at +215, well within the suggested buy price.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Fight Goes Distance 34-23 59.6% +10.26u
Over 40-17 70.2% +9.54u
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 9-6 60% +1.19u
Underdogs 21-36 36.8% +0.41u
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