UFC Vegas 19: Historical Betting Trends by Division/Weight Class

By Al Mac Feb 20, 2021

UFC Vegas 19 Betting Trends by Division: The most profitable division trend coming into tonight’s UFC Vegas 19 event is the Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division, which has gone 16-22 for +12.1 units profit since January of 2020. Shana Dobson deserves credit for about 7 of those units, and she comes into tonight having cashed as the biggest underdog of last year.

Let’s take a look at all of the active division betting trends for UFC Vegas 19

UFC Heavyweight Division

The underdog in the UFC Heavyweight division has turned a small profit over the last 13 months, with the dog winning 20 of the last 47 bouts in this division, for a 42.6% win rate, and +2.63 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, the dog at heavyweight at any price of +135 or better is a bet worth making. Meanwhile, the Over has cashed in 53.2% of heavyweight bouts since January of 2020, going 25-22 for a slight profit of +0.23 units. Based on the betting trends, any ‘Over’ in this division at -114 or better is a +EV bet worth making.

Spivak vs Vanderaa: Based on the betting trend, there is value on Jared Vanderaa at the +195 price vs Sergey Spivak. Based on the betting trends, there is value on the ‘Under’ here at -106, as the ‘Over’ is priced out, beyond the buy price of what should be considered a +EV bet.

Arlovski vs Aspinall: Based on the betting trends there is value on Arlovski at the hefty plus price of 2-1 on the UFC odds board, while the ‘Under 1.5 rounds’ prop at +123 has a decent amount of value, considering 46.8% of the fights in this division have gone ‘Under’ over the last year.

Oleinik vs Daukaus: With Aleksei Oleinik coming is as the +170 underdog, there is some decent value on him at that price, while the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop sits at a hefty +165, which is well within the suggested buy price, making both plays +EV wagers worth making.

Blaydes vs Lewis: Derrick Lewis comes into this fight as the longshot +350 underdog, which seems like a solid price to back whether the ‘Black Beast’ wins or losses this fight. The ‘Over 1.5’ rounds prop was the real home run spot in this fight, opening at -135, but has now been bet up all the way to -210. You can still salvage some value on the ‘Over 2.5 rounds’ prop at -105.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

The Men’s Featherweight division is yet another division where the ‘Over’ has been a moneymaker. Since January of 2020, 46 of the last 64 fights at men’s 145lbs have gone ‘Over’ the betting total, cashing at a 71.9% rate for +16.32 units. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at -256 or better is a bet worth making. Meanwhile, the favorite has cashed at a 64.1% at men’s featherweight but has failed to turn a profit.

Skelly vs Emmers: Chas Skelly is coming in as the +190 underdog in a fight that is much closer than the odds indicate, while the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is lined at -183, which is well within the buy price set on the ‘Over’ in this division. Both plays would be considered +EV, based solely on the division betting trends.

Erosa vs Landwehr: Julian Erosa comes into this fight as the ‘coin flip’ underdog, lined at -102 to Landwehr’s -122. There is value on Erosa at that price, while the ‘Over 2.5’ rounds prop is lined at -113, in a division where the fight has gone the distance more than 7 of 10 times over the last year.

Minner vs Rosa: The ‘Over 1.5’ rounds prop has some serious value in this fight at -142, especially considering the market is expecting a quick finish between these two, while Minner is catching +151 odds on the moneyline, which just isn’t enough to get behind him if you plan on playing the buy prices on these division betting trends.

UFC Middleweight Division

The ‘Under’ in the UFC Middleweight division has been a solid bet to make over the last 13 months, cashing at a 55.6% rate for +7.03 units profit, with a 30-24 betting record. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Under’ at the price of -125 or better is a +EV wager worth making. Meanwhile, the favorite has cashed at a 68.5% rate since January of 2020 but has only turned a profit of +0.87 units along the way.

Hawes vs Imavov: The ‘Under 1.5 rounds’ prop has value in this fight at -106, while Phil Hawes comes in at the affordable price of -123, well within the buy price of a favorite in this division, based on the betting trends.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

The underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has been on a roll over the last 13 months. The dog at women’s 125lbs has won 16 of the last 38 bouts at this division, cashing for +13.1 units along the way. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has been surprisingly successful at Women’s 125lbs, going 15-22 for +5.29 units since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend and using implied probability, any ‘Under’ at the price of +147 or better is a bet worth making long term in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division.

Dobson vs O’Neill: Shana Dobson is coming off one of the biggest upset wins in 2020, and finds herself once again as a flyweight underdog to a UFC newcomer. Based on the betting trends, there is value on both Dobson and the Under 2.5 in this bout.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

The under in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division has been one of the most profitable trends to back over the last 13 months, with 30 of the last 56 bouts at men’s 135lbs going Under the betting total, profiting for +14.29 units. The favorite has dominated at this division, winning at a 67.9% rate since January of 2020, going 38-16-1 for +1.89 units. Based on the betting trends, any ‘Under’ at the price of -116 or better would be a +EV bet worth making in this division, while all you need is a -212 or better to have the betting edge on your side on the favorite in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division.

Wineland vs Castenada: Based on the betting trends, there is some serious value on the ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop in this fight at +157, while John Castenada coming in at -124 on the ‘coin flip favorite’ line is worth a shot as well.