Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions

Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Michael Johnson (19-16) looks to avoid four-straight losses for the first time in his career as he battles Guida on the prelims. The 34-year-old recently switch camps and is now training in Arizona with fellow UFC lightweight division contender Drakkar Klose. Johnson most recently was submitted by Thiago Moises at UFC Fight Night in May 2019.

Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida Odds

UFC Vegas 18

Michael Johnson

Clay Guida

To Win Outright -192 +180
Inside the Distance +225 +765
by Decision +168 +270
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-196) Under 2.5 (+185)
Fight Goes Distance Yes (-175) No (+155)
Where/When UFC Apex, Las Vegas Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET

Guida (35-20) also looks to get back on the winning track, coming into this matchup off back-to-back losses. “The Carpenter” will be looking for his first win since May 2019.

I see value on Guida at the odds of +180 as the betting underdog for a few reasons. Four of Guida’s last six losses have been by submission, and Johnson doesn’t have a single submission victory in his UFC career. If Johnson can’t finish the fight early, I see this as Guida potentially taking over in the later rounds on route to a close decision. On paper, Johnson is the better fighter, which is why I’ll be picking him here. But you can’t ignore the value on Guida with this being such a close fight.

Tale of the Tape: Johnson vs Guida

UFC Lightweight Bout Michael Johnson Clay Guida
Record 19-16 35-20
Finish Rate 53% (8 Wins by T/KO) 57% (13 Wins by Submission)
Age 34 39
Height 5’10 5’7
Reach 73.5′ 70′

The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has gone 24-33 over the last 13 months, for +8.76 units profit. Based on the division betting trends, any underdog at the price of +138 or better, is a value bet with an implied probability edge. Clay Guida comes into this fight lined as around a +170 underdog.

The ‘Under’ has cashed in 28 of the last 57 bouts in the men’s lightweight division, profiting for +3.24 units. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any ‘Under’ at a price of +104 or better in this division has been an +EV bet to make. The ‘Under 2.5’ prop in this bout is currently lined at about +170.

UFC Betting Trends: Lightweight Division

Since 2020 Record Profit (Units)
Dogs 24-33 +8.76u
Under 28-29 +3.24u

UFC 260 Odds Post Show

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021 Record Win % Profit (Units)
Favorites 20-15 57.1% -5.83u
Dogs 15-20 42.9% +5.56u
Over 24-11 68.6% +4.65u
Under 11-24 31.4% -12.07u
Fight Goes Distance 21-14 60% +9.34u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance 14-21 57.1% -9.42u