Chicago Bears vs LA Rams Pick – NFL Week 7

Odds.com’s Chicago Bears vs LA Rams Pick – NFL Week 7: The 5-1 Chicago Bears travel to SoFi stadium in Los Angeles to take on the 4-2 Rams on Monday Night Football. Chicago is both 4-2 ATS and to the ‘under.’ The Los Angeles Rams are 3-3 ATS and 4-2 to the under. Note both teams are riding three-game ‘under’ the total streaks.

NFL Betting Chicago Bears LA Rams
Opening ATS Line +7 (-110) -7 (-110)
Total Over 44.5 (-110) Under 44.5 (-110)
Where/When So-Fi Stadium Oct 26th, 8:15 PM EST

How good are the Rams?

The Los Angeles Rams four wins this year have all come against the NFC East widely viewed as the worst division in Football. The four teams in that division have a combined record of 5-18-1 entering week 7 and only two of those wins came against teams outside of their division. In their other two games, the Rams were getting blown out by the Bills 28-3 and trailed 24-9 against an injury-riddled San Francisco team. The final score looked better when the Rams scored a late touchdown.

Chicago 5-1 start and their offense

Chicago started the season 3-0 needing just 17 points to beat the Giants. They needed and got 4th quarter rallies to erase a 17 point deficit against Detroit and a 16 point deficit against Atlanta. Note Detroit ranks a league-average 17th and Atlanta ranks 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt thus making comebacks against these teams was possible.

Chicago is now on a 3-0 run to the ‘under’ after doing nothing offensively against Indianapolis. Their lone touchdown drive came in garbage time as they were unable to provide a serious rally. Note Indianapolis has a competent defense ranking 7th in opponent yards per pass attempt.  Against Tampa Bay, Chicago had one legitimate touchdown drive when they went 75 yards. Chicago’s lone other touchdown required just 27 yards of offense after their defense forced a turnover. Last week, against Carolina, Chicago’s longest touchdown drive was just 56 yards thanks to a missed Carolina field goal. Their other touchdown drive was just 7 yards thanks to an interception.

Chicago has been unable to establish the run in any game this season. They are led by running back David Montgomery whose best game came in week two when he rushed for 84 yards. Chicago as a team ranks 25th in yards per rush attempt averaging 3.9 yards. Statistically, the rest of their offense doesn’t rank much better averaging 4.8 yards per play and 5.6 yards per pass attempt which both rank 29th in the NFL.

Being one dimensional won’t work against a stout Rams defense. The Rams rank number one in opponent yards per pass attempt giving up 5.9 yards per attempt and 4th in yards per play giving up 5 yards per play. Also, the Rams have a ferocious pass rush led by two time defensive player of the year Aaron Donald. They rank 5th in the NFL in sacks per game getting to the quarterback 3.3 times per game.

Rams offense vs Bears Defense

The Rams led by quarterback Jared Goff are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season. Goff threw for a season-low 198 yards and averaged just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Despite last week’s performance, the Rams passing game has been strong this year averaging 8 yards per pass attempt which ranks 4th in the NFL. Chicago does rate as the toughest defense the Rams have seen ranking 6th in yards per play and 5th in yards per pass attempt.

The Rams red-zone offense hasn’t been great converting 60.87% of their trips into touchdowns which is just 22nd in the NFL. The Chicago Bears have the NFL’s best red-zone defense allowing opponents to convert just 36.36% of their trips into touchdowns. This has best been illustrated over the past three weeks against Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and Carolina as those three teams have combined to score just 3 touchdowns compared to 11 field goals against Chicago’s defense.

Recent Meetings

Chicago and Los Angeles have met in each of the past two seasons. Two years ago in Chicago, Chicago won 15-6. There was a total of one touchdown scored in the game and neither team was able to accumulate 300 yards of offense. Chicago averaged a pedestrian 4.5 yards per play and 3.2 yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Los Angeles was worse averaging just 3.5 yards per play and 3.4 yards per pass attempt.

Last year, at Los Angeles, the Rams won 17-7. Again neither team was able to accumulate 300 yards of offense and in the second half alone, there were nine punts. Chicago did very little offensively averaging 3.6 yards per play and 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Los Angeles did have some success throwing the football averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt.

Chicago Bears vs LA Rams Pick:

The best current price on the Under is at 45 (-111) via BetAmerica: Chicago offensively has done just enough in recent weeks to win games and have been aided by a defense that refuses to give up touchdowns. The Rams have an elite defense as well and a capable offense that tends to settle for field goals. These teams have met in each of the past two seasons. If you add up the scores, for both teams, in both games, you get a total of 45 points. The total for this contest sits at 45 which is too high considering both teams’ defenses and recent history. Take the ‘under.’