How To Bet the 2021 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl 55

Super Bowl 55 Odds

How To Bet Super Bowl 55: The underdog has won 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls going back to 2011, and has profited +$430 on the moneyline for $100 bettors over the last ten years.

Two rounds down and we’re left with just three NFL games left to bet on this season. Now, just 4  teams will vie for a chance to reach Super Bowl 55 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. With the big game just around the corner, let’s take a look at the best betting tips, tricks, and trends for the Super Bowl and the NFL playoffs.

Raymond James StadiumIt’s been an up and down year for NFL bettors. Postponements, scheduling headaches, last-minute roster moves and a whole slew of players coming in and out of the lineup due to COVID-19 protocol. After all the hassle that was the regular season, we’re finally getting to the meat and potatoes of the season, the playoffs, and more importantly the Super Bowl.

While it will likely not be your typical Super Bowl, with a reduced crowd in attendance, fewer watch-parties, and maybe even fewer people at the local casinos betting on the game. Never the less, with the rise of sports betting apps and online gambling, Super Bowl LV could break records for overall betting handle in the United States, especially considering the legal market has expanded into more states than ever before.

With 4 teams remaining the playoffs in 2021, let’s take a look at the NFL Odds for each team to win Super Bowl LV.

Odds via Bet365 as of January 18th.

Super Bowl LV Odds

Kansas City +200 Green Bay+220 Buffalo +300 Tampa Bay +400
Aaron Rodgers MVP Odds

Which Conference Wins Super Bowl LV?

AFC

NFC

-130 +110

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 54If you’re going to risk some of your cash, it might be a good idea to educate yourself a bit first – and one of the best ways is to emulate professional gamblers by studying trends.

Some trends are obviously useless. For example, last year, you might have been tempted to wager that San Francisco would defeat Kansas City-based solely on the fact that teams that had worn white jerseys had won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls. Final score: Red-shirted Chiefs 31, White-shirted 49ers 20. KC, favored by one point going in, won on both the spread and moneyline. Whoops.

Best Super Bowl LV Match-Up Odds

Match-Up

Odds

Green Bay vs Kansas City +300
Tampa Bay vs Kansas City +500
Green Bay vs Buffalo +600
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo +760

There are some other historical trends that hold their weight. Something to consider for the cautious bettor. If you’re the kind of guy who likes to back the chalk, and bet with who the sportsbooks favor to win. Be aware, the chalk favorite has not done as well as they have in previous eras.

The Jets’ colossal upset over the Colts in Super Bowl III was actually an outlier because the betting favorite has been the probable winner of the big game, winning 36 of 54 games. It goes without saying, moneyline favorites dominated early, winning 11 of the first 14 Super Bowls. However, as of late, the dogs have been barking – with 8 of the last 13 Super Bowls being won by the outright underdog, including 6 of the last 10.

Recent NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends

Since 2012

Win %

Record

Profit (Units)

4Q Over 78% 7-2 +4.37u
Dogs ML 55.5% 5-4 +3.69u
1H Under 66% 6-3 +2.46u
3Q Under 44% 4-3-2 +0.64u
Dogs ATS 55.5% 5-4 +0.55u
Over 55.5% 5-4 +0.55u

Super Bowl's Greatest CatchSometimes experienced gamblers can look for trends among other bettors as a means to cash. Let’s say the Giants and Patriots are playing in the Super Bowl, and the betting line is New England favored by 7 points. Sharp bettors, knowing that most bettors wind up losing money, take a contrarian approach and risk their money on the Giants, figuring that they would win with the public losing. It doesn’t always work, but the concept seems reasonable.

Bettors who can’t make up their minds on a winner either straight up or against the spread should consider betting on the total points to be scored in the game. Last year’s Chiefs-49ers game finished with 51 total points, 2.5 under the game-time Over/Under number of 53.5.

Generally, the Over has been a good play. In the 36 Super Bowls in which sportsbooks have offered total points as a wagering option, the Over has cashed 21 times (one push). Super Bowls have averaged 46.3 points, but since the O/U has been on the board, teams have put an average combined total of 50.4 points. So, if you root for offense, as most fans do, it can put a few extra dollars in your pocket if you get your way.


NFL Playoff Betting Trends

There are plenty of Playoff games to wager on leading up to the Super Bowl (and even extra teams added during this strange pandemic season), so there are some other strong trends to keep in mind in the lead up to this year’s Super Bowl.

One of the most profitable betting trends over the last three years has been in the NFL Wild Card Round where the Underdog has gone 10-8 for +11.48 units profit. In 2018 the Tennessee Titans upset the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21 as +340 moneyline underdogs, in a game where the Chiefs led 21-3 going into halftime.

Double Doink GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHYA year later, the Eagles defeated the Bears in what will forever be known as the ‘double doink’ game, with Cody Parkey missing a game-winning 43-yard field goal that hit two bars on the uprights, losing the game 16-15 with no time left on the clock.

Last year the Minnesota Vikings upset The New Orleans saints as +290 moneyline underdogs, winning the game 26-20 in overtime. For the Vikings, it was the first road win in the playoffs since 2005, but it was in fact the 8th road dog over the last three years to win outright over the favorite in the Wild Card round. In 2021, the Rams defeated Seattle as a +150 road underdog by a score of 30-20, while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game in two decades, defeating the Steelers as +205 road underdogs. Let’s take a look at a few more historical playoff betting trends by round.

Historical NFL Playoff Betting Trends by Round

 

Time Period/Playoff Round

Trend

Record

Profit (Units)

Since 2016 – Conference Championship Over 7-3 +3.37u
Since 2016 – Conference Championship Home ATS 7-3 +3.37u

Continuing with the theme of underdogs; the dogs have been barking in the NFL playoffs in general over the last three years. Since January of 2018, the Underdog in the NFL playoffs has gone 27-16 ATS, and 18-25 straight-up for a moneyline profit of +9.12 units. $100 bettors who have backed the moneyline dog in the NFL playoffs since January of 2018 have profited +$21 per game, win or lose. Let’s take a look at some of the other profitable NFL playoff betting trends over the last few years.

Recent NFL Playoff Betting Trends

Since 2018

Win %

Record

Profit (Units)

Dogs ML 42% 18-25 +9.12u
Road Dogs 45% 15-18 +10.88u
Dogs ATS 64% 27-16 +8.57u
Road Teams ML 43% 17-23 +6.6u
Road Teams ATS 63% 25-15 +7.75u
Under 53% 23-20 +0.93u

It is important to note that although the road underdog and road team, in general, have been turning a profit over the last three years of NFL playoffs, this year will not be like any other. In fact, when tracking the trends over the course of the regular season this year, in comparison to previous years, the road team has won at almost the same rate as it has in previous years, but with far less profit along the way.

This is due to a lack of home-field advantage being factored into games with little to no crowd in attendance, so underdogs are being a little bit underpriced. For instance, a road team that would have been a +300 underdog in the opening round of last year’s playoffs, may be closer to +250 or +225, simply because of the lack of fan support.


Superbowl PropsBetting Super Bowl Props

Any sportsbook worth it’s salt will offer dozens, if not hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets – ranging from the ever-popular length of the national anthem to the number of times a non-skill position player will touch the ball during the game. One of the more popular prop betting trends throughout the playoffs is betting on a running back to score ‘First Offensive Touchdown’. The reason for this is because in the playoffs there tends to be tighter officiating, and more penalties in the end zone, causing more ‘1st and goal’ plays at the 1-yard line. This has been a go-to trend over the last two years of the NFL playoffs, and even in the Super Bowl. In fact, the ‘First Offensive Touchdown’ has been scored by a running back in five of the last nine Super Bowls.

Sometimes researching trends can give a savvy, educated gambler an edge against the house, and edges against the house can be few and far between. So study up. Maybe next year you’ll be back in the office, and you can take your co-workers to the cleaners with your new-found knowledge.


Whatever way you decide to bet the big game, keep it locked to Odds.com’s NFL page for all the NFL betting trends, picks, predictions and news headed into the final game of what has been a wild NFL season.

FAQ: Super Bowl 55

Who is favored to win Super Bowl 55?

Going into the Wild Card Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs are +220 favorites to win Super Bowl LV

Who Will Win Super Bowl 55?

While the Kansas City Chiefs lead the pack on the NFL odds board, the betting favorite has only won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Thus, it is extremely hard to predict the Super Bowl winner, but based on the betting odds, Kansas City has a 30% chance of winning at odds of +225.