Horse Racing Predictions for June 24, 2020
A new week is upon us and it is led by Gulfstream Park who has a 10 race program. Indiana Grand and Lone Star are also both running and I’ll look at a race from all 3. Let’s take a look at my horse racing predictions for today.
Gulfstream 8th (3:41 pm Et): Flute Maker is dropping
The Gulfstream 8th is a $16,000 Claimer going 7 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up who have not won 2 races. I’m against morning-line favorite Mintz who was claimed in his last race for $25,000 and shows up in this spot 4 months later and the connections, off the layoff, are willing to immediately take a $9,000 loss. The barn has also been ice cold this year adding to my skepticism.
Perhaps Korczak can wire this field but he is leaving the disgraced Jorge Navarro barn and his maiden win came at a lower level than he is running for today. Have been letting previously trained Navarro horses beat me and I’ll continue to do it here.
One alternative is Three Deep who broke his maiden 2 starts ago needing every bit of the one-mile distance to get there. Throw out his last where he was facing better and while he’s a contender in this spot, I do wonder if he prefers a mile.
The horse I want is Flute Maker (8-1 ML) who faces the easiest level of competition in his career and should enjoy getting back to the distance of his maiden win. He probably needed his first start of the year off the layoff and didn’t have to love being inside of horses last time. Might be ready to provide a peak effort 3rd off the layoff and blinkers on could help to.
Lone Star 5th (4:43 pm Et): The Devils Back can rally
The Lone Star 5th is a $25,000 claimer going 5 furlongs on turf for 3-year-olds and up who have not won 2 races. The best asset for the top 3 choices on the morning line Palvera, Jack Van Berg, and Royal Bertrando is speed so the pace should be honest.
Of the three, I don’t want Royal Bertrando who is facing winners for the first time or Jack Van Berg who is making his turf debut. Palvera is your morning line favorite and I’m not totally against him on the class drop but with the likely contested pace and going for a barn that has been ice cold at the meet, I’m looking for a horse at a bigger price who can rally.
My play here is The Devils Back (15-1 ML). If you assume he is not a dirt horse than you can throw out his 4 races at Oaklawn in the winter. That leaves him with 3 races all of which he was competitive in including his maiden win at Woodbine on synthetic. Last out in his turf debut he broke last and had to rally widest of all and still came on strong to be 2nd. Love that the connections claimed him for $8,000 immediately moved him to turf for nearly double the evaluation and off the strong effort, see fit to raise the evaluation more.
Indiana 8th (5:36 pm Et): Right spot for Amazima
The Indiana Grand 8th is an Allowance Optional Claiming event for Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up going 1 mile on turf where I’m against morning-line favorite Zuzanna. The last time we saw her was 6 months ago winning a grade 3 at Del Mar at 1 3/8 miles and earning a career-best Beyer speed figure.
My questions include: Why the 6-month vacation after such a strong performance, do you trust her to repeat that effort, at this point in her career does she just want more distance and is this just a prep for a race down the road? None of the answers I come up with make me want to take a short price with her today.
War Cabinet also probably wants longer distances and while the comment line from her last says ‘no room’ thought she was a little boxed in on the far turn but really did no running.
More Roses can win and I’ll use her as a speed threat though she is likely to face pressure from Final Cut. She tried to get on turf in both her starts at Indiana last year but couldn’t. She overmatched the competition on dirt in those races but they were off turf races.
The first time she ran in a true dirt race was her last race where she showed little though the 11 month layoff may have had something to do with it. Perhaps she was always a turf horse and moves up on the surface but from a win betting standpoint, I’m not that curious to find out as one of the favorites.
Amazima (10-1 ML) is my play as she figures to get a good trip while saving ground for one. Think she has taken a step forward as a 4-year-old. Her race 2 starts ago gives her a strong chance in this spot and while her last wasn’t very good she probably bounced off the peak effort and at a price, I’m willing to overlook it.