Horse Racing Picks For Friday July 3, 2020
Monmouth returns to action with a 5 pm ET post time. The Oceanport Centennial is the feature, a sprint going 5 furlongs. Belmont also has stakes feature the License Fee going 6 furlongs on turf. Let’s look at our horse racing picks for some of today’s races.
Belmont 3rd (2:23 pm Et): Appletini can make all
The Belmont 3rd is a $14,000 claiming event going 6 ½ furlongs on dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up who have not won three races. Not totally against morning-line favourite Big Bennys Tribute but he figures to be overbet now that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr takes over. She is coming off a layoff and not sure the race will set up for her from a pace standpoint. Note the two times she went off as the favourite, she had to settle for second.
Both Kinky Sox and Hetty G. just broke through their non-winners of two condition while picking up their first dirt wins. They can both factor if they can repeat their last efforts but don’t trust either to do so. If I had to take one it’d be Hetty G. as it’s possible her recent improvement is because of her new trainer Wesley Ward.
Lookbothways is my second choice as she probably needed her last race off a three-month layoff and has the ability to be forwardly placed which should be a positive in this spot. The horse I prefer is Appletini (6-1 ML) who has been part of wicked paces recently. Today however she looks like the controlling speed and note the only other time she competed at today’s distance was also the last time she was left alone on the lead. That day she broke her non-winners of two-lifetime condition and today with a similar tactical advantage, she can breakthrough at the non-winners of three-level.
Ellis Park 3rd (2:46 pm Et): I Saw Her First can finish first
The Ellis Park 3rd is $10,000 claimer going 1 1/16 miles on turf for fillies and mares three years old and up who have not won two races. Double Oaked is your morning line favourite and while she can win, she doesn’t have a class edge on this field and is 1 for 26 lifetime with 11 minor awards.
Rollover Risk looks similar to Doubled Oaked in that she is 1 for 27. She just has worse form both recently and overall thus I’m against her. I’m also against Fed Policy who after her debut she ran six straight races with a Beyer figure between 44 and 48. Doubt any of those consistently mediocre performances would be good enough in this race and her last-place finish in her three-year-old debut most certainly is not.
The horse I want is I Saw Her First (9/2 ML) as her lone attempt on turf was her debut where she ran okay earning a 56 Beyer which would be competitive in this spot. Her best performances have been when she has been part of the running early and with the lack of pace in this race, it’s possible that she will be on the lead or very close to it. The possibility of having a lead turning for home could be important considering her main competition prefers to settle for minor awards.
Woodbine 6th (3:41 pm Et): Parmigiano can make it 2 for 2
The Woodbine 6th is an allowance optional claimer going six furlongs on synthetic for three-year-olds. Perhaps morning-line favourite Patrol can win as he has faced better on turf and dirt in the U.S. but he has yet to try synthetic. While he had wide posts in those difficult races, he did no running in them and as one of the favourites; I don’t totally trust him to turn his form around today.
Forester’s Turn is a logical alternative as he has won 3 of 4 including his three-year-old debut against older horses. The main issue is jockey from his last race, Kimura, lands on the morning line favourite. Contreras takes over and will be the fourth jockey in five races for Forester’s Turn.
The horse I want is Parmigiano (10-1 ML). Parmigiano won his debut last December when being 3 wide the whole way and acting like the best horse. He would need only minor improvement in his 2nd career start to be a factor in this race and no reason why he couldn’t take another step forward. Yes, trainer Sid Attard has gotten off to a slow start at the meet and while some of his other horses might have needed their seasonal bows, don’t think Parmigiano will need a race as evidenced by his winning debut.