Florida State vs NC State Pick: College Football Week 11

NC State vs Florida State

Florida State vs NC State Pick – College Football Week 11: Florida State comes into this week’s game against NC State, looking to bounce back from a 41-17 loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 20 points or less. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack of NC State are 5-2 ATS this season, and have gone over the total in 6 of their 7 games in 2020.

Florida State
NC State
Over 60 (-110)
Under 60 (-110)
Carter-Finley Stadium
Sat. Nov 14th, 7:30 PM ET

Florida State hasn’t covered a game at Carter-Finley Stadium in their last 9 trips to North Carolina, and are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings overall.

Match-Up and Trends

Team Record
Moneyline profit
Florida St.
NC State

Florida State is 2-3 ATS as an underdog in 2020, with one of those covers coming as the outright winner over UNC as a +360 underdog. Beyond that, it’s been a relatively disappointing season for FSU backers, with the Seminoles going 0-2 as a favorite this year, losing to Georgia Tech, who were +375 underdogs.

The Seminoles have lost games by an average of 13.9 points this year, and have failed to cover by an average of 12.1 points. If you’ve bet against Florida State in all 7 games this season, $100 per game, you would be up +$331. Needless to say, FSU has been a fade team so far in 2020.

NC State has performed far better than FSU in terms of their expectations. The Wolf Pack have gone 4-2 ATS as an underdog, picking up outright wins over Virginia as a +225 outright underdog, and against Virginia Tech as a +420 moneyline dog. In only one game so far this season has NC State been lined as the ATS favorite and beat Duke 31-20 as -170 favorite on the moneyline.

With a 4-3 record, the Wolf Pack have an average margin of -2.7 points per game, but have covered the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. In direct contrast with FSU, if you’ve bet $100 on NC State in every game this season, you would be up +$573, laying the chalk in just one of those seven games.

Measure of Expectation

Avg. Margin
Avg. ATS Margin
moneyline fade
Florida St.
NC State

While there is a decent amount of value on NC State, the real value looks to be on the Over at 59.5 (via BetMGM).

FSU has allowed an average of 35.9 points per game, while NC Stae has put up an average of 32.9. If FSU can even put up a fraction of what they put up on average, this game should go over the total.