Weekday College Football: Wednesday Night MACtion
By
Nov 18, 2020
College Football Picks – Wednesday Night MACtion: The Mid-Atlantic Conference is on tap again on Wednesday night with three games on the betting board. Two of the three games see the home team lined as the underdog, while Ball State is the solo home favorite on the Wednesday MACtion betting card.
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan Odds: – College Football Week 12: Toledo comes into tonight’s game riding a 1-5 ATS streak in their last 6 games, and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games on the road. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan plays host tonight riding a 5-1 ATS streak in their last 6 games, and are have covered 24 of their last 31 games as an underdog, a streak that dates back over four seasons.
Match-Up and Trends
Toledo is 1-0 as a favorite and 1-0 as an underdog in 2020. They cashed as a steep -1600 moneyline favorite over Bowling Green in week one of their season, but dropped their next game to Western Michigan as a -102 chalk sided underdog.
Eastern Michigan has lost both of their games this season, but have covered both as an underdog. The Eagles covered as 4.5 point dogs to Kent State, who were -210 moneyline favorites, and followed it up with a 38-31 loss to Ball State (-325), covering the +8 point spread.
Measure of Expectation
Based on the measure of expectation, these teams are pretty close to where they should be as far as their pre-season ratings go. Toledo lost a coin flip game to Western Michigan last week, and could easily also be a 2-0 ATS team. Eastern Michigan has shown they have the ability to hang around with teams that are clearly better than them, something they showed last week against Ball State.
Eastern Michigan looks to be the better side to take here, but if you plan on betting them, it would be wise to jump on this now and still be able to have that key number at +7. The value is definitely still there at 7, but at +6.5 this is a total stay away. Act now on Eastern Michigan, on a dog or pass game.
Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Pick: – College Football Week 12: There are a few old rivalries being renewed in the Mid-American Conference this week, none bigger than the clash at Central Michigan between the Chippewas and Western Michigan Broncos. Not only will this year’s winner walk away with the Victory Cannon Trophy, they will also sit in sole possession of the West Division lead.
Match-Up and Trends
Off to a 2-0 start both straight up and against the spread, Western Michigan is putting plenty of points on the scoreboard. The Broncos romped past Akron in the season opener, 58-13, and slipped past Toledo at home last week by a 41-38 count. Tim Lester’s troops trailed the Rockets by 10 with under three minutes to go before a furious rally to win it, a fake spike play providing the decisive score.
Measure of Expectation
Not to be outdone, Jim McElwain’s Chippewas have also covered their first two triumphs, first as a slight underdog in a 30-27 against Ohio and then a much easier 40-10 final last week at Northern Illinois. Freshman Daniel Richardson has started both games at quarterback and done a solid job, but McElwain has a decision to make this week with David Moore eligible to return after his suspension. Moore had been the projected starter before a bad drug test last spring.
Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Pick
The schools are meeting for the 92nd time, and 48th consecutive year, with Western Michigan up 50-39 plus a couple of ties. The Broncos have won and covered the last two, and grabbed the dubya in five of the last six. Kickoff should come with the thermometer sitting around 40° under cloudy skies, and I’m going to buck a recent ‘under’ trend in the series with a play on the ‘over.’
Northern Illinois vs Ball State Odds: – College Football Week 12: The Huskies come into Tuesday night’s game riding a 7-1 ATS streak in their last 8 as the road underdog. While Ball State are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite and have covered just once in their last eight games against a team with a losing record.
Match-Up and Trends
Northern Illinois are 0-2 this year, both games lined as heavy underdogs, with Toledo cashing as a -233 favorite, and Buffalo as -585. Meanwhile, Ball State are 1-0 as a favorite, cashing at -323 against Eastern Michigan last week, but lost a pick’em game to Miami-Ohio in the first week of their season, by the identical score of 38-31.
Measure of Expectation
Based on the measure of expectation, Ball State has faired better than Northern Illinois against the number so far in 2020, but that’s not saying very much. If you had to pick a side, Ball State at the price of -14.5 and would be the better side to take, but if this line reaches -15 or higher, it’s a definite stay away.
The play to make on this game is the Over. Ball State has gone Over the total in both of their games this year, and are on a 6-0 streak to the Over, going back to the 2019 season. The total seems low at 62, with these teams combining for an average of 66.75 in their two games combined. Take the Over in this one.
Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your College Football betting needs for Week 12. The best current odds can be found at our College Football Odds Page. Stay tuned for plenty more College Football Picks throughout the season.