New Mexico vs Air Force Odds: College Football Week 12

New Mexico vs Air Force

New Mexico vs Air Force Odds – College Football Week 12: New Mexico comes into Friday night’s game having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 32 games overall, a stat that dates back over two and a half seasons. Meanwhile, Air Force can’t say much better for themselves, having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 33 conference games.

WEEK 12 MATCH-UP
New Mexico
Air Force
+10 (-110)
-10 (-110)
Total
Over 55.5 (-110)
Under 55.5 (-110)
Where/When
Falcon Stadium
Fri. Nov 20th, 9:30PM ET
New Mexico has covered the spread in four of their last five trips to Colorado Springs, with the Over going 4-1 in those five games at Falcon Stadium. New Mexico and the Over has hit in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Match-Up and Trends

Team
Record
ATS
O/U
New Mexico
0-3
2-1
2-1
Air Force
1-2
1-2
1-2

New Mexico has gone 2-1 ATS in their first three games this season, all of which coming as the underdog. In those three games, the Lobos have been lined at an average of +430 on the moneyline, but have managed to cover the spread by an average of 5 points per game. New Mexico has managed to keep the score within an average of 10 points, which is pretty impressive considering they were against three opponents lined at -550 or higher.

Air Force has been lined as the ATS favorite just once so far this season, a game in which they dropped to San Jose St, who were an outright +220 moneyline underdog. The Falcons have been a hard team to read in 2020, as they started their season with a 40-7 blowout of Navy as heavy +200 underdogs, but then followed it up with an underwhelming loss to SJSU. The Falcons haven’t played since October 31st, a game in which they lead 14-7 after the 1st quarter, but were outscored 28-3 in the 2nd and 3rd. It was a game that was much closer than what the final score indicates.

Measure of Expectation

Team
ml profit
ml fade
avg. Margin
avg. ats margin
New Mexico
-$300
+$49
-10
+5
Air Force
+$1
+$137
+1
+5

Although Air Force is likely the better team of the two and also considering that the Falcons have faired better against their competition than the Lobos have, there still seems to be a slight potential for value on New Mexico, if this line moves towards +10 or higher. Air Force has been an up and down team, and probably shouldn’t be favorited by 10 or more points against anyone in the Mountain-West, outside of Utah State. If New Mexico ends up in the +270 range, at +10 points or more, they are probably worth a small shot.

The total is a dead stop stay away. It’s very hard to predict how New Mexico’s defense is going to fair against Air Force. If the Falcons are able to run it up against the Lobos, then the Over is in play, but this seems to be a better spot to fade Air Force at that number of +10 or better, rather than putting your money behind what seems like a coin-flip point total.

Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your College Football betting needs for Week 12. The best current odds can be found on our College Football Odds Page. Stay tuned for plenty more College Football Picks throughout the season.