NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Odds.com’s NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Trends: Since 2017, the Over has hit at a 60% rate on NFL Thursday Night Football, including a 3-2 run to start 2020. 

Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 4: What to do with Nick Foles vs. Colts - DraftKings NationThe 2020 NFL season is going to be unprecedented. Due to many teams opting to play games with a reduced amount of fans in attendance, with some teams playing without any fans at all. Due to this, several ‘go-to’ football betting trends in the NFL, could slowly shift into the realm of meaningless numbers. For example, last year the ‘Road Underdog’ went 91-66-8 ATS. Even further, between 2018 and 2019, the ‘Road Underdog’ has gone for a combined 186-143-14 ATS. Now, 56% over two years of NFL football is pretty impressive, the only problem is that those numbers may be completely meaningless by the end of the 2020 NFL season. With the majority of NFL stadiums being left empty to start the season, the ‘home field advantage’ may be a moot factor this season. As early as week one of the 2020 NFL season, we have seen a noticeable difference in the performance of home teams, and more specifically home underdogs. If that is the case, sportsbooks will likely adjust quickly to compensate for the +3 the home team is standardly given. However, with all the chaos that could occur in the NFL this season, there are still a few ‘old reliable’ trends to back in 2020.

Short Rest Factor.

Scotty Miller on Tom Brady: 'How can you not believe in him?'The classic situation of the short week in the NFL has been a solid angle to back for as long as we can remember. While the lack of fans may take away a small part of the home-field advantage. Road teams are still going to be traveling, while also playing on short rest. This angle has paid off over the last three years in the NFL, with the home teams on Thursday’s going 30-23-3 ATS since 2017. Whether or not this long term trend holds water in 2020 remains to be seen, however, the most interesting angle on Thursdays involves the total.

Thursday Night Totals

Since 2017, the Over has gone 34-22 on games taking place on Thursday. This trend should still hold water in 2020, as the lack of home-field advantage won’t play a factor on the short rest angle. Over the first four weeks of the season, the TNF game averaged a combined total of 57 points but in Week 5 the Bucs and Bears only managed to put a combined 39. Dropping the average total significantly, as well as the ‘TNF Over’ falling to 3-2, to start 2020.

Prime Time Football

To begin week 7, after 6 weeks of the NFL season, 13 of the 22 primetime NFL games have gone Under the betting total. In fact, since the start of the 2019 season, the ‘Under’ has gone 49-29 in all night games. These two conflicting trends, of the Thursday Night Over, and the Prime Time Under, somehow overlapped in 2019, and it is expected to continue in 2020.

TNF Week 5 Recap

The Thursday Nighter in Week 5 saw the Chicago Bears hold on to defeat Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a score of 20-19. With a betting total of 44 points, the 39 was not enough to get the ‘Over’ which had gone 2-0 on Thursday in Week 3 and Week 4

Thursday Night Football Trends

Year to Date: Over Home Teams ATS Dogs ATS
Since 2017 34-22 30-23-3 27-26-3
Since 2020 3-2 2-3 4-1