Astros vs Diamondbacks Pick August 4, 2020

Astros vs Diamondbacks Pick August 4

Today we will be looking at my Astros vs Diamondbacks pick for this upcoming series. This series kicks off tonight and runs through Wednesday, August 6, 2020.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Series Odds Date
Astros/DBacks -140/+100 August 4th – August 6th

The Houston Astros will start C. Javier today in the series opener at Arizona. Javier looks to have the most upside of all three pitchers. Our sample size is small, but in the one game vs the heavy-hitting Dodgers, Javier kept a deadly offense in check. Looking into Valdez, he was also money for the Astro’s when faced with the Dodgers.

Houston Astros

Projected Pitchers Record FIP SIERA WHIP K/BB Batting Average B.A


Javier 0-0 2.75 3.18 0.60 9.00 0.130 N/A
Valdez 0-1 1.73 2.95 1.03 5.00 0.220 N/A
McCullers 1-0 5.75 4.99 1.80 1.43 0.282 0.286

McCullers is winning games, but his numbers this year have been rough, and McCullers needs to be much better. He needs to keep his WHIP down, at 1.80 and he can’t give the Diamondbacks extra baserunners. Overall I’m high on two of the three pitchers in this series, with McCullers raising a bit of a concern.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

Projected Pitchers Record FIP SIERA WHIP K/BB Batting Average B.A

Vs Hou

Bumgarner 0-1 3.96 4.88 1.09 2.25 0.200 0.217
Ray 0-2 8.33 5.85 2.16 1.22 0.265 0.276
Gallen 0-0 4.75 3.58 1.30 2.50 0.189 N/A

Arizona pitching staff are lead by veteran superstar M. Bumgarner. Bum is having a nice start to his campaign, don’t let his 0-1 record fool you, other than the 4.88 SIERA Bumgarner is still showing the long lefty still has some gas in the tank. The DBacks biggest problem thus far in their rotation has been old Robbie Ray.

His career numbers do not help his case either, with an abysmal 8.33 FIP, and 2.16 WHIP, I’m not high on Robbie, to say the least. Z. Gallen will be a bright spot for the Dbacks, he is the only pitcher going in the series who has his SEIRA lower than his FIP. This might be one of the best things for a pitcher. The difference between FIP and SIERA is, SIERA accounts for balls allowed in play, while FIP takes that out. A Solid SEIRA will go a long way for a pitcher.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks offense

Team Batting Average Slugging % ISO Power BB/K BABIP Hard Contact %
Astros 0.255 0.354 0.150 0.62 0.303 40 %
DBacks 0.162 0.235 0.073 0.34 0.250 36 %
Astros vs Diamondbacks Pick August 4

(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

This has been the biggest issue for the Dbacks thus far, they just can’t generate hits. Their numbers sit them in the bottom 3 in the league in nearly all 6 categories. Starting with the batting average, SLG %, and ISO power, it’s their worst start to a season since 2016 when they had a .424 W-L percentage. As you can see from our chart above, DBacks do not have the advantage in any major offense stat we like to focus on.

Houston on the other hand has above average contribution. My biggest eye-opener is the fact the team holds a 0.62 BB/K. They are a patient team that will make you throw strikes in order to get out of tough jams. With such an advantage on the offensive side of things, I’m not sure how AZ bats keep up with a superb hitting squad.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks bullpens

Team FIP SIERA WHIP Batting Avg. K/BB
Astros 3.07 4.13 1.41 0.226 1.85
DBacks 4.76 3.99 1.37 0.203 1.87

Similar to the series starting pitchers, the bullpen do not have much separation. I would almost give a slight advantage to the DBacks. This is because of their slightly better SIERA, WHIP, and batting average. I’m expecting each pitcher to go at least four innings, with the bullpens pitching about ⅜’s of the game. Both bullpens are not in the top half of the league, this just enforces the fact, the offense will have the advantage late over the bullpens.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Injury Report

Team Name Position Return Date
Astros Osuna RP Uncertain
Springer OF Day-to-Day
Diaz 1B Indefinitely


Team Name Position Return Date
Diamondbacks Walker 1B Early Aug.
Martin SP Uncertain

Houston to me has just too much firepower at the plate for the bullpen and Robbie Ray. I have significant trust in the two youngsters early on, they have played the Dodgers, this is the DBacks, Houston pitchers will be much more comfortable this time around.

3 Game Series Bet: Houston Astros-140