Division Betting Trends – UFC Fight Island 5

UFC Fight Island 5 Picks – Division Betting Trends: The ‘Coin Flip’ underdog at heavyweight (+9.55u) is the most profitable active division trend on the UFC Fight Island 5 betting card. Here is a full list of the trends worth tracking for tonight’s UFC event. 

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA.

As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on, what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

Trends Worth Tracking – UFC Fight Island 5

Certain types of fights have a certain set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Whatever it may be, there is quantifiable data that we can analyze to find these trends, isolate and exploit them for profits. Let’s take a look at the betting card for UFC Fight Island 5 and the most profitable trends, and probable outcomes for each division on the card.

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
Under 15-19 44.1% +4.22 Units +127
Favorites 21-12-1 61.8% -0.15 Units -162

Division Trend Plays: Ulanbekov/Silva u2.5 Rounds (+133), Bruno Silva +362

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
Over 30-6 83.3% +7.85 Units -499
Favorites 26-10 72.2% +1.87 Units -260

Division Trend Plays: Tracy Cortez (by Decision) +100

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
Over 67-36 65% +9.29 Units -186
Favorites 62-38-3 60.2% -6.96 Units -151

Division Trend Plays: Zalal/Topuria o2.5 (-114), Amirkhani/Barboza o2.5 (+121), Makwan Amirkhani +194

UFC Men’s Middleweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
Over 48-30 61.5% +1.43 Units -160
Favorites 47-28-1 61.8% -2.77 Units -162

Division Trend Plays: Breese/Bhullar o2.5 (-120), Perez/Du Plessis o2.5 (-103), Jaoquin Buckley +201, KB Bhullar +180

UFC Picks and Predictions Fight Island 5

UFC Men’s Heavyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Underdogs 17-8 68% +9.55 Units +100
Over 18-14 56.3% +2.48 Units -129
Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
Underdogs 30-43-2 40% +0.39 Units +150

Division Trend Plays: Marcin Tybura +120, Nascimento/Daukaus o1.5 (+115), Baudot/Aspinall o1.5 (+162), Chris Daukaus +203, Alan Baudot +471

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Underdog 14-13 51.9% +2.02 Units +100
Over 62-39-1 60.8% -0.28 Units -192

Division Trend Plays: al-Qaisi/Kelley u2.5 (+174), Moraes/Sandhagen o3.5 (+104), Marlon Moraes +118

Enjoy the Fights!