Division Betting Trends – UFC Fight Island 5
By
Oct 10, 2020
UFC Fight Island 5 Picks – Division Betting Trends: The ‘Coin Flip’ underdog at heavyweight (+9.55u) is the most profitable active division trend on the UFC Fight Island 5 betting card. Here is a full list of the trends worth tracking for tonight’s UFC event.
Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA.
As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on, what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.
Trends Worth Tracking – UFC Fight Island 5
Certain types of fights have a certain set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Whatever it may be, there is quantifiable data that we can analyze to find these trends, isolate and exploit them for profits. Let’s take a look at the betting card for UFC Fight Island 5 and the most profitable trends, and probable outcomes for each division on the card.
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| Under | 15-19 | 44.1% | +4.22 Units | +127 |
| Favorites | 21-12-1 | 61.8% | -0.15 Units | -162 |
Division Trend Plays: Ulanbekov/Silva u2.5 Rounds (+133), Bruno Silva +362
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| Over | 30-6 | 83.3% | +7.85 Units | -499 |
| Favorites | 26-10 | 72.2% | +1.87 Units | -260 |
Division Trend Plays: Tracy Cortez (by Decision) +100
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| Over | 67-36 | 65% | +9.29 Units | -186 |
| Favorites | 62-38-3 | 60.2% | -6.96 Units | -151 |
Division Trend Plays: Zalal/Topuria o2.5 (-114), Amirkhani/Barboza o2.5 (+121), Makwan Amirkhani +194
UFC Men’s Middleweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| Over | 48-30 | 61.5% | +1.43 Units | -160 |
| Favorites | 47-28-1 | 61.8% | -2.77 Units | -162 |
Division Trend Plays: Breese/Bhullar o2.5 (-120), Perez/Du Plessis o2.5 (-103), Jaoquin Buckley +201, KB Bhullar +180
UFC Men’s Heavyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Underdogs | 17-8 | 68% | +9.55 Units | +100 |
| Over | 18-14 | 56.3% | +2.48 Units | -129 |
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| Underdogs | 30-43-2 | 40% | +0.39 Units | +150 |
Division Trend Plays: Marcin Tybura +120, Nascimento/Daukaus o1.5 (+115), Baudot/Aspinall o1.5 (+162), Chris Daukaus +203, Alan Baudot +471
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Underdog | 14-13 | 51.9% | +2.02 Units | +100 |
| Over | 62-39-1 | 60.8% | -0.28 Units | -192 |
Division Trend Plays: al-Qaisi/Kelley u2.5 (+174), Moraes/Sandhagen o3.5 (+104), Marlon Moraes +118
Enjoy the Fights!