UFC Vegas 16: Most Profitable and Probable Division Betting Trends

Montana De La Rosa Odds

UFC Betting Trends by Division – UFC Vegas 16: Tonight’s most profitable active UFC division betting trends is in the Women’s Flyweight division, where the Underdog has gone 13-19 for +12.5 units profit since the start of 2020. Montana De La Rosa is an 11-6 fighter who has gone 0-2 as an underdog in her UFC career. Tonight she is lined as a +195 dog to Brazilian Taila Santos.

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA.

As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on, what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

Trends Worth Tracking – UFC Vegas 16

Certain types of fights have a certain set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Some times it may even be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight. Whatever it may be, there is quantifiable data that we can analyze to find these trends, isolate and exploit them for profits. Let’s take a look at the betting card for UFC Vegas 6 and the most profitable trends, and probable outcomes for each division on the card.


UFC Men’s Heavyweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 18-9 66.7% +9.67u +100
Dogs 34-49 40% +2.05u +150

UFC Vegas 16 Heavyweight Bouts:
Gian Villante (-200) vs. Jake Collier (+156)

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Over 73-39 65.2% +12u -187
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs 22-20 52.4% +3.46u -110

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Featherweight Bouts:
Ilia Topuria (-286) vs. Damon Jackson (+218)
Nate Landwehr (+438) vs. Movsar Evloev (-667)

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 5-0 100% +3.84u -150
Favorites 18-5 78.3% +5.15u -360
Under 12-11 52.2% +4.16u -109

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Flyweight Bouts:
Jimmy Flick (-169) vs. Cody Durden (+134)

UFC Men’s Lightweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Favorites 85-40 68% -0.82u -212
Over 74-52 58.7% -4.26u -142

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Lightweight Bouts:
Matt Wiman (+328) vs. Jordan Leavitt (-467)
Gabriel Benítez (-233) vs. Justin Jaynes (+177)

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 25-25 50% +9.81u +100
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite 9-6 60% +0.89u -150
Favorite 34-15-1 68% +1.08u -212

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Bantamweight Bouts:
Louis Smolka (-137) vs. José A. Quiñónez (+108)

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Dogs 13-19 40.6% +12.54u +146
Since 2019
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 11-5 68.6% +3.23u -221
Dogs 25-44 36.2% +6.67u +176
Over 45-24 65.2% -5.79u -187

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Bantamweight Bouts:
Montana De La Rosa vs. Taila Santos

UFC Men’s Light-Heavyweight Division

Since 2019 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
‘Coin Flip’ Favorites 9-4 69.2% +2.4u -225
Under 39-35-1 52% +0.41u -108

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Light-Heavyweight Bouts:
Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan Arte
Ovince Saint Preux* vs. Jamahal Hill

UFC Men’s Middleweight Division

Since 2020 Record Win % Profit (Units) Buy Price
Under 25-17 59.5% +9.79u -147
Favorites 30-12 71.4% +1.86u -250

UFC Vegas 16 Men’s Middleweight Bouts:
Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori


UFC Vegas 16 Picks After the Weigh In

UFC Vegas 16 Propping You Up

UFC Vegas 16: Total Betting Madness

Marvin Vettori Odds

Jack Hermansson Odds

UFC Vegas 16 Full Card

Middleweight Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori
Light Heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jamahal Hill
Women’s Flyweight Montana De La Rosa vs.  Taila Santos
Light Heavyweight Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan Arte
Featherweight Movsar Evloev vs. Nate Landwehr
Heavyweight Gian Villante vs. Jake Collier
Lightweight Matt Wiman vs. Jordan Leavitt
Flyweight Jimmy Flick vs. Cody Durden
Featherweight Ilia Topuria vs. Damon Jackson
Lightweight Gabriel Benítez vs. Justin Jaynes
Bantamweight Louis Smolka vs. José Alberto Quiñónez

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FAQ: UFC Vegas 16

What is the main event for UFC Vegas 16?

Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori: The UFC had originally scheduled Darren Till vs Jack Hermansson for December 5th, but Till had to pull out due to an injury. Kevin Holland stepped in as the replacement for Till, but was removed from the event due to a positive COVID-19 test. Marvin Vettori was expected to face Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC 256, but was instead moved to face Hermansson, while Souza will now face Holland at UFC 256.

Who is the biggest Underdog at UFC Vegas 16?

UFC Featherweight, Nate Landwehr is a +520 underdog to undefeated Russian Movsvar Evloev (-710).