Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Mauricio Rua Prediction and Underdog Best Bets #fightisland3

By James Lynch Jul 23, 2020

UFC Fight Island 3 takes place Saturday on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi and features former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker battling Darren Till in the main event. We will be reviewing my Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Mauricio Rua prediction and underdog best bets so let’s get started. Despite a number of intriguing matchups on the main card, I don’t see any value on any of the current underdogs.  However, the preliminary card is a different story.

From a betting perspective,  the only sizable favorite on the card is welterweight Khamzat Chimaev who is currently -1250 against Rhys McKee +839.  I don’t see any value on McKee in this fight, even at those odds.

Mauricio Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Odds

A trilogy fight takes place in the co-main event as “Shogun” battles “Minotouro” in the 205-pound division. While these are two legends in MMA, this matchup is a case of two fighters well past their respective primes. Rua (26-11-1) last fought to a split draw against Paul Craig at UFC Sao Paulo in November and has only lost once in his last five fights. However, the 38-year-old has only competed four times since 2017 and is one of the less active fighters in the division.

Clint's Rua vs Rogerio Pick - #Fightisland3

Nogueira (23-9) like his opponent has been very inactive over the last few years have just competed twice since 2017. The 44-year-old is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Ryan Spann at UFC 237, which was his second knockout loss in his last three fights. Being five years older than “Shogun” and already losing to the former UFC champion twice already, I don’t see any value on Nogueira as the underdog in this fight.

Expect the former PRIDE champion to potentially finish Nogueira within the three-round affair and keep an eye out for Rua inside the distance prop which could have some value for this matchup.

Jai Herbert vs. Francisco Trinaldo Odds

While Francisco Trinaldo has a clear experience advantage over his opponent having been a UFC mainstay since 2012, I do see value on the newcomer Herbert to pull off the upset at +150.

Herbert (10-1) is the former Cage Warriors lightweight champion and fought stiff competition in the regional scene with his last six opponents having a combined record of  56-17. “The Black Country Banger” has a height and reach advantage in the match and is nine years younger than his Brazilian opponent. Add in the fact that Herbert has finished five of his last six opponents, the UK fighter poses a serious threat to the UFC veteran.

Trianldo (25-7) carries a two-fight win streak into the matchup and last defeated John Makdessi by decision at UFC Brasilia in February. The 41-year-old boasts notable wins over Yancy Medeiros, Paul Felder, and Jim Miller. Saying that “Massaranduba” is one of the oldest fighters in the 155-pound division and at some point, we will start to see a decline in his skillset. I think this is the fight where we’ll see that.

Expect Herbert to use his lanky frame to keep Trinaldo on the outside and pick his shots, while also avoiding any takedowns throughout the three-round affair. For that reason, I see value in Herbert as a +150 underdog in this lightweight bout which headlines the preliminary portion of the card.

Bethe Correia vs. Pannie Kianzad Odds

It’s understandable why Correia is the underdog in this women’s  135-pound matchup having gone winless in three of her last four fights, however, I do see value in her at +125 against Kianzad.

Correia (11-4-1) is coming off an impressive win over Sijara Eubanks last July where she defeated the TUF 26 standout by decision. Prior to that victory, Correia suffered back-to-back losses against Top 5 bantamweight Irene Aldana and former women’s champion Holly Holm. In fact, all of Correia’s losses in the Octagon have come against former champions or contenders in the bantamweight division. The 37-year-old has fought 10-times in the UFC compared to Kianzad who is in just her third fight in the Octagon.

Clint's Undercard Picks #fightisland3

Kianzad (12-5) picked up her UFC victory in November when she defeated Jessica-Rose Clark by unanimous decision at UFC Moscow. While the 28-year-old has fought solid competition outside the UFC including former Invicta champion Tonya Evinger and former Strikeforce champion Sarah Kaufman, it’s not to the level of Correia.

Despite being the younger fighter and having a height and reach advantage in the matchup, I do see value on Correia as the underdog. I expect the matchup to go the full three rounds, with Correia potentially edging out the fight on the judge’s scorecards.