Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Pick – NFL Week 7

Brees’s Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Pick – NFL Week 7:

NFL Betting Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints
Opening ATS Line +7 (-110) -7 (-110)
Total Over 50 (-110) Under 50 (-110)
Where/When Mercedes-Benz Superdome Oct 25th, 1:00 PM EST

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a brutal 23-16 home loss to the Chicago Bears, in which they committed three game-changing turnovers. The Panthers failed to cover the spread as 1.5-point home favorites.

The New Orleans Saints last played 13 days ago when they defeated the San Diego Chargers 30-27 in a dramatic overtime game. With 0:52 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Taysom Hill perfectly executed a 9-yard read-option play to score a touchdown. Kicker Will Lutz converted the extra-point tying the game and then made a 36-yard field goal giving the Saints the victory.

Betting Market Developments

The betting line opened with the Saints priced as 6-point home favorites and a 51-point total. The Saints has been the popular choice with 56% of the 1,288 tickets bet but accounting for only 34% of the money bet. Early action on the Saints drove the price higher to 7.5-points. Thursday’s action saw professional bettors come into the market to grab the 7.5 points causing the line to retreat to a 7-point level. The 7-point line is unlikely to change, given the two-way balanced betting action in the market.

The total has been dominated by ‘OVER’ bets. 85% of the tickets bet, accounting for 65% of the money bet on the total. The action has forced the price to move up to 51.5 points. The rising trend in the total will push to 52 points approaching game time.

The betting line and total imply a 29.5-22 Saints win using a 7.5 spread and 51.5-point total. When scoring 27 or more points as a home favorite, the Saints are 80-15 straight-up (SU) and 61-31-3 against-the-spread (ATS) for 66% winning bets since 1990. When allowing 27 points as a road underdog, the Panthers are money-burning 6-56 SU and 17-44-2 ATS for 28% winning bets since 1990.

What is the Betting Line Scoring Differential?

The implied final score using the side and total lines is a solid starting point. Let us dive deeper into the data and discover meaningful intelligence that points to the best bet opportunity.

The average amount of points that an NFL team outperforms or underperforms the implied final score provides a sentiment reading that directly impacts opening lines and total in the coming weeks of NFL action. For example, the Miami Dolphins rank best in the NFL, scoring an average of 7.32 points more than the betting lines have implied this season. On defense, the Dolphins rank 2nd allowing an average of 6.75 points fewer than the implied betting line. As a result, the Dolphins have earned a solid 5-1 ATS record this season.

The Saints rank 29th, allowing 6.40 more points, and 22nd, scoring 2.50 more points than the implied betting lines. To create an implied betting line differential (BLD) requires the defensive measure subtracted from the offensive measure. The Saints then have an overall average BLD of -3.9 points-per-game (2.5-6.40). The Panthers rank 7th in the NFL, allowing an average of 2.21 fewer points, and 20th, scoring an average of 0.71 more points-per-game than the implied betting lines in 2020. The Panthers BLD is 2.91, ranking 16th in the NFL

The Betting Line Differential in Action

Over the past ten seasons, the Saints are 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets in games installed as a home favorite and facing an opponent with a BLD of not more than 5 points higher than their BLD. The average score of these 14 games saw the Saints scoring 32.93 and allowing 22.50 points. So, the results underscore the probability that the Saints will score 27 or more points, which has been a favorable betting result as detailed above.

Betting ‘UNDER’ at the Best Time

Whenever the Saints are involved in a game betting, the ‘UNDER’ is rarely the preferred choice. The Saints and quarterback Drew Brees has been one of the best offensive teams in the NFL, spanning more than two decades. There are great times to bet the ‘UNDER’ in Saints games.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 80-46 record good for 64% winning bets since 1990. The system has three simple requirements.

Bet the ’UNDER’ when the total is at least 49.5 points:

  • The game is a divisional matchup.
  • One of the teams is coming off a home win.

In this game, the Saints are the team coming off the home win in this divisional matchup.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Pick:

Take the Under at 50.4 (-114 via DraftKings) as a Best Bet: The analysis presented above is one of the dozens of metrics that provide winning betting intelligence. The BLD analysis underscores a betting opportunity on the Saints as a 7-point favorite. The  ‘UNDER’ is a substantial betting opportunity at a price not lower than 52-points.