Indians vs Royals Pick – August 31, 2020

Indians vs Royals Pick

Game: Cleveland Indians (21-13) vs Kansas City Royals (13-21)
Odds: Indians -220 / Royals +200 / Total 7.5
Where: Kauffman Stadium Kansas City 8 pm EST

Battle of the aces. Shane Bieber the leading AL Cy Young winner looks for his seventh straight victory of the year. Kansas City will counter with big Brad Keller, 3-1 in his 2020 campaign. The lights out numbers these two posses, and the lack of hitting from these two clubs, we love the first five under 4 -110. @ FanDuel.

Indians vs Royals starting pitching

Team Pitcher Inning
Indians Bieber (R) 46.200 0.176 0.810 1.350 37.700 95.800 1.920 16.700 34.400
Bieber (Away) 34.200 0.172 0.750 2.390 36.200 100.000 1.900 20.000 32.400
Royals Keller (R) 21.200 0.189 1.150 3.190 9.100 81.500 1.560 0.000 33.900
Keller (Home) 11.200 0.154 0.940 2.370 15.900 100.000 2.140 0.000 25.900
Indians vs Royals Pick

(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Pitching dominance is one way to describe the start of Shane Bieber. The AL Cy Young leader is averaging more than ten strikeouts a game, and only a seven runs allowed in seven games. I have little worries when Bieber goes on the road, he’s pitched nearly 75 percent of his games away from Progressive Stadium. Not allowing any baserunners to score, this is why he is in the upper echelon of starting pitchers. One statistic we can knit pick Bieber on is his HR: FB ratio, a couple of times he has left some pitches over the plate, and good teams will take advantage of this. Merrifield is the one with the most success off Bieber.

There’s more than just one ace on the mound when big Brad Keller is called into action. The young hard-throwing righty is having the best start to his career,  3-1 losing only to the Cardinals in his previous start. Take this game away, Keller has a perfect 0 ERA in 17 innings of play. Lucky for Keller his task tonight will be against a weak Indians lineup, hitting only 0.203 on the road. Another stat for Keller you should be quite high on is the number of ground balls he produces, at 2.14 every fly ball. I’ll be backing a nice bounce-back game from Keller who’s proven he’s the real deal in 2020.

Indians vs Royals offensive production

Offense Batting
Indians (vs R) 0.228 24.200 0.714 0.144 0.285 94.000 1.390 14.100 37.500
Indians (Away) 0.203 22.800 0.668 0.145 0.242 87.000 1.250 13.000 41.000
Royals (vs R) 0.238 23.600 0.722 0.176 0.281 92.000 1.090 14.900 41.100
Royals (Home) 0.272 22.700 0.777 0.171 0.330 107.000 1.050 12.900 38.200

Cleveland has relied on their pitching, to get them to their 12-6 record on the road, and 10-22 Over/Under away from home. If you go back to look who the Indians have beaten, its been sub .500 teams like the Pirates and Tigers. Expect a similar result here when the Indians have to take on Keller who’s had their number in the past. It’s a high mountain to climb for a team that only hits 0.203 on the road, and owns a very low ISO power, and BABIP. Another glaring factor for the Indians is their lack of home runs, at 13 percent your HR: FB ratio will not bode well against a 2.14 GB: FB pitcher.

Kansas City has been the better of the two offenses, hitting for above average at home, while creating more extra-base hits than the Indians. At home Kansas City are a top 10 hitting ball club with a 107 wRC+, all this seems great until they are faced with Shane Bieber. Unless Merrifield and Lopez are producing hits, I could not find another batter on the Royals who can hit Bieber, especially now that he is having the best year of his career. The first five innings could be a 1-0, 1-1 final after five innings, cashing our ticket.

Indians vs Royals pick and bullpen production

Bullpen K-BB % Batting Avg. WHIP FIP LOB%
Indians 20.100 0.199 1.000 3.040 79.300
Indians (Away) 23.300 0.164 0.850 2.720 91.300
Royals 12.800 0.247 1.480 4.720 78.600
Royals (Home) 14.900 0.245 1.380 3.390 70.700

The motive to stay off the full game under was due to Royal’s weak bullpen. After Keller comes out of the game there’s a chance the Indians could explode for runs. Cleveland has a top 5 bullpen on the road and will give the Royals troubles from start to finish with Bieber tossing heat. Run to the window and bet the first five under 4 at -110 before the line gets juiced to the max.

Injury Report: Offense Only

Team Player Injury Time
Indians Healthy
Royals Heath CF 10-Day IL (Hamstring)
Royals Perez C 10-Day IL (Eye)

Best Bet: First Five Inning Under 4 -110 @ FanDuel