Churchill Downs Picks for 3rd, 10th, 12th Race Sept 4, 2020
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Sep 4, 2020
Churchill Downs picks for the 3rd, 10th and 12th race will be my horse racing plays for today but first let’s do a quick recap on Thursday’s action. Yesterday at Saratoga, the P.G. Johnson was taken off the turf and Simply Ravishing proved best in her dirt debut. In the New York Stallion Series, Officer Hutchy broke alertly and utilized a slightly better trip to beat Spin a Yarn by half a length. Spin a Yarn was used for speed but was beat for it by Big Q. She had to let that horse go past, angle outside of her and then did all the dirty work keeping her honest.
At Churchill Downs, The Opening Verse Overnight was taken off the turf and Crafty Daddy held off Captivating Moon in the stretch and then survived a claim of a foul. In the Pocahontas, Girl Daddy got the jump on Crazy beautiful to earn an all-expenses paid trip to the Breeders’ Cup. For the second race in a row, the jockey of Crazy Beautiful decided to try and split horses while the horse was under a full head of steam and this time it cost her.
Today is Kentucky Oaks day with a very nice undercard that sees the return of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing. She had a four-race win streak snapped last time when trying a group one at Ascot where she was a strong second. Monomoy Girl returns to the races in the La Troienne for a rematch with Vexatious who upset Midnight Bisou most recently. Mundaye Call and Four Graces add star appeal into what should be a thrilling renewal of the Eight Belles where I have a slight preference to the better drawn Four Graces. Let’s look at some races:
Churchill 3rd: High Regard can rally 12:00 pm Et
The Churchill 3rd is an allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares three years old and up going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Positive Spirit is your morning line favourite and likely needed her four-year-old debut in a stake last time. After breaking her maiden she ran exclusively in graded stakes last year and while she can win, as the favourite I find her unappealing. The main reason for that is the only race that makes her a favourite is her win in the Demoiselle at Aqueduct, a race she has yet to repeat.
The last race Beautiful Trauma ran when she dominated an allowance event at Fair Grounds, winning by 16 lengths, would give her a strong chance in this spot. The issues are she did that while being left alone on the front end on a sloppy track. Her three previous efforts which all came at Churchill Downs weren’t nearly as good. That race came over eight months ago and don’t see her getting the same trip alone on the front end with the speed of Resurrection Road and Shacklette. She also faces older horses for the initial time.
Resurrection Road also provided a peak effort last time when being allowed to set soft fractions at Indiana but her race wasn’t nearly as impressive when having everything her own way as some others. Jeweled Princess will take some money off back to back wins but thought she found the right spots, this spot is tougher and a repeat of her last two races would only give her a minor award.
The horse I want is High Regard (5-1 ML) as I am willing to ignore her last race at Ellis Park and her turf start two races back. Her race three starts ago at Churchill Downs would give her a strong chance. Note all her best performances, including her two wins all came at Churchill Downs and she should get an honest pace in front of her.
Churchill 10th: By My Standards the now horse 4:15 pm Et
The Churchill Downs 10th is the grade two Alysheba for four-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. McKinzie and morning line favourite By My Standards figure to take all the money and wouldn’t be surprised if McKinzie, who is the defending champion of this race goes off favoured. Note the strong connections of trainer Bob Baffert and Jockey Mike Smith and he has gone off the favourite in all of his races (10) in the U.S. since the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Either way, expect both horses to be around 3/2 and while bettors treat it as a match race I much prefer By My Standards (7/5 ML).
(AP Photo/Darron Cummings, file)
My issue with McKinzie is that while he has plenty of back races that can win, none of his last three efforts would beat By My Standards and not sure he has come back the same horse since trying the Saudi Cup three starts ago. You can argue that his last two races, a sprint and a one-turn mile were too short for him and he’ll perform better stretching back out to two turns. My issue with that argument is he competed in the Met Mile last year and came with a strong rally while in that same race this year, in his last start, he had no rally.
By My Standards has been facing the top of the class recently in Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat and he managed to split those two horses last time. He is the now horse, the one in the better current form. He has clearly taken a step forward as a four-year-old and with just 11 career starts, is likely still improving.
Churchill 12th: Swiss Skydiver a proven commodity 5:45 pm Et
The Churchill Downs 12th is the main event, the grade one Kentucky Oaks for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Let’s start with the pace in which there is an idea that it might get heated as the two favourites both have plenty of speed and neither is likely to concede anything. Should the pace get heated Speech and Donna Veloce figure to be the logical closers. Speech has a recency edge and note she finished a strong second to morning-line favourite Gamine in an allowance at Oaklawn when Gamine was allowed to much more easily control the pace.
Donna Veloce has run once in nine months and it came six months ago. It’s hard to believe that she will put forth a peak effort against this calibre of competition off that layoff but she is talented. Note in that last race she soundly beat Speech by four widening lengths.
My only issue with the pace melting thought is you have the top of the class in the three-year-old female division and the best horses can set strong fractions and continue on in the stretch.
I’m against morning-line favourite Gamine who has provided special performances in her last two races in dominating the Acorn and Test. The Acorn field was weak as the second choice that day Casual came back to do nothing in a race at Ellis Park and horse who finished 2nd, Pleasant Orb would be north of 50-1.
She won the Test at the start when Venetian Harbor conceded an easy lead to her. Gamine has yet to prove she can rate and she might have to as Swiss Skydiver is fast enough to run with her early. Note the only competitive race she has been in was the one time she tried two turns in her longest race to date going 1 1/16 miles. Note that is the only race where she has lost ground from the stretch to wire as she has widened her lead in all her shorter races thus distance appears to be a fair question.
The best way to beat a talented speed horse is with another talented speed horse because you can stay close and be more in control of the result. I prefer Swiss Skydiver (8/5 ML) whose lone try at today’s distance came against males in the Blue Grass where she finished second to Art Collector who was going to be among the favourites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby if he didn’t scratch. Swiss Skydiver already answered the distance question when she won Alabama last time going 1 ¼ mile. She is fast enough to with Gamine early and with the rail draw, can make Gamine work for the lead and at least keep Gamine in the 2-path while Swiss Skydiver saves ground. While Gamine appears to be immensely talented, Swiss Skydiver is proven at Churchill Downs, has answered the distance question and can rate if needed while Gamine has not answered these questions. I get the proven commodity at a better price and I’ll take it.