Canterbury Park Picks and a Gulfstream Prediction for Wednesday July 15, 2020
A new week is here and Canterbury leads the way with five stakes all of which are on turf. Gulfstream begins a new week as well. Let’s start Wednesday off with my Canterbury Park picks and a Gulfstream prediction.
Gulfstream Park 6th Tipsy Again can rebound 2:37 pm Et
The Gulfstream 6th is a claiming $8,000 event for fillies and mares three years old and up who have not won three races going 5 ½ furlongs on dirt. I’m against morning-line favorite Miss Mac who provided a 33-1 upset last time when getting past her non-winners of two (N2L) condition. While that performance gives her a chance in this spot, I don’t trust her to repeat it.
I’m also against Channeled’s Angel who also just broke through her N2L condition while setting a leisurely pace against easier at Tampa Bay Downs. She likely won’t get the same easy set up in this race against tougher horses.
Citibike is fast enough to take the lead and potentially wire this field but she’s impossible to trust. She badly blew a clear lead at Fair Grounds, she was then put away for over three months. She came back in an allowance turf race and was pulled up and off that effort she plummets in class today. Clearly she did not make it to be one of my horse racing picks.
The horse I want is Tipsy Again (7/2 ML) as all of her three bad races can be easily explained. Last time she tried turf and she likely isn’t a turf horse, two starts ago she set a contested pace against better horses and her debut was on synthetic. Her other three races were a pair of wins at Tampa Bay Downs and a second by a nose at Gulfstream. Getting back to dirt should be what Tipsy Again needs to provide better performance.
Canterbury Park 6th: A Professional Performance 8:10 pm Et
The Canterbury 6th is an allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds and up going one mile on dirt. Perhaps morning-line favorite Clear the Mine will make amends after disappointing as the favorite last time on June 25th. My issue in that race was that the eventual winner So Alive and Clear the Mine were both in similar spots, off the pace and So Alive just performed better. Clear the Mine moved first and perhaps too soon but he made no late impression.
Jerrys Pridenjoy who was the pacesetter in that June 25thrace had every chance to wire that field being loose on the lead. He projects a similar trip today but losing that clear lead last time and being 0 for 10 on the Canterbury dirt makes him hard to trust. Go Away can win but his good dirt results, including his only win on dirt last out, have come in easier off turf races.
The horse I want is Professional (8-1 ML) who provided a career-best performance when setting a slow pace. It’s fair to question if he’ll be able to repeat that performance in this spot but thought he did it very easy for new trainer Robertino Diodoro. Note his previous trainer Jordan Blair liked him enough that when Professional was claimed from him in early January, he re-claimed him a couple of starts later. The way Professional won last time, think Diodoro may have figured him out and the quick return speaks of a horse in career form and connections wanting to take advantage of that.
Canterbury Park 7th Beach Flower back on turf 8:40 pm Et
The Canterbury Park 7th is the Lady Canterbury stake for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up going one mile on turf. Of the morning line favorites, I’m against Fool’s Paradise who recently provided a peak effort in a minor stake at Lone Star. She did that from a ground-saving post two and today she has to deal with outermost post twelve.
Winning Envelope is your morning line favourite and can win but she is pace dependent. Also outside of her win in the Jersey Lilly Turf at Sam Houston Race Park, where she got a perfect trip splitting horses in the two path, she does not have other races that make her a standout. Aife ran well last time in a win at Fair Grounds over four months ago. Outside of the layoff, I question who she beat in that last race as none of the six horses who have come back to run has won.
There are two alternatives. The first being Streak of Luck who has been facing better horses in graded stakes in California. Both her efforts, in the grade three Megahertz and grade two Goldikova going today’s distance on turf would make her competitive in this spot. She does, however, have to contend with an outside post.
My top pick is Beach Flower (8-1 ML) who has a ground-saving post two and is proven on the Canterbury turf. She provided a peak performance when upsetting this race last year and has enough tactical speed and a good post to do it again. Her recent form can be ignored as three of those races were on dirt and the other was going 1.5 miles in a graded stake at Keeneland. Prior to that she ran and won at Canterbury at today’s distance.