San Jose State vs San Diego State Pick: College Football Week 10
San Jose State vs San Diego State Pick – College Football Week 10: Staying in the Mountain West but shifting to Friday night, we have something of a surprise matchup between teams off to 2-0 starts in conference play as the San Jose State Spartans travel to face the San Diego State Aztecs.
San Jose State vs San Diego State: Match-Up and Betting Trends
San Jose State is the surprise side of the equation after the Spartans were picked to finish near the bottom of the MWC. The Spartans are coming off their 6th-straight losing season, and third under Brent Brennan with only four conference wins the last three years. They look certain to match that number on the shortened 2020 schedule, everything beginning with a nice upset of Air Force in the season opener as touchdown underdogs on the college football odds board.
San Diego State was expected to challenge for the MWC title following a 10-year run of winning seasons, and three league crowns. Now in his second stint with the Aztecs, Brady Hoke has been able to rely on his defense in the first two weeks, the unit at the top in scoring (6.5 ppg) and total yards (200.5 ypg). Those stats came at the expense of a couple of weaker sides in Utah State and UNLV, however, and the Spartans will definitely not be as easy to run on as the Aggies last week when SDSU covered more than 400 yards on the ground.
San Jose St. vs. San Diego State Pick
It’s the Aztecs who lead the rivalry overall (22-19-2) and are currently riding a 7-game win streak over the Spartans. Several wins in the present run have been lopsided in San Diego State’s favor, but the last two were close clashes. Last year’s contest in San Jose ended with a 27-17 win and cover for the Aztecs as 7½-point favorites. Two years ago at SDCCU Stadium, the Aztecs needed a late field goal for a 16-13 final to avoid a huge upset as 25½-point chalk. Five of the last six stopped short of the totals, and that’s where I’m going with my free NCAA football pick.
Algorithms and Betting Systems:
The San Jose Spartans will take their 2-0 record to Fort Collins, Colorado, to take on the 2-0 San Diego State Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET, Friday. San Diego State opened as a 9.5-point home favorite. In early betting action, bettors have been attracted to San Jose State getting the 9.5 points, and a few books have lowered their line to nine points. The total for this game opened at 48 points and was greeted immediately with a steady flow of ‘UNDER’ bets that pushed the line lower to its’ current price of 47 points.
The betting lines, side, and total imply a final score of 28-19 and a San Diego State win. The 28 point level is a crucial pivot level for many NCAA Football programs. For instance, San Diego State is 52-7 straight-up (SU) and 38-20-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 66% winning bets when they were a favorite and scored 28 or more points in games played since 2010. They are 22-12 SU, but just 8-25-1 ATS for 24% winning bets when dressed as a favorite and scoring fewer than 28 points in games since 2010. The ‘UNDER’ in these games has earned a sparkling 26-6-2 record good for 81% winning bets since 2010.
The machine learning models provide projections that help determine if a team, like San Diego State, will score more or fewer than 28 points. In this game, they point to them scoring more than 28 points and gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-play. San Diego State is a stellar 20-1 SU for 95% wins and 17-3 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 12.2 points in games played since 2005.
San Jose State is 2-24 SU and 6-19-1 ATS in games in which they allowed 28 or more points and 7.0 yards-per-play in games played since 2005. Filtering these results by games that San Jose State was a dog produces a 1-21 SU and 6-15-1 ATS for 29% winning bets since 2005. So, San Diego State is the bet to make in this matchup.
Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your College Football betting needs for Week 10. The best current odds can be found at our College Football Odds Page. Stay tuned for plenty more College Football Picks throughout the season.