Arkansas vs Auburn Pick – College Football Week 6
Odds.com’s Arkansas vs Auburn Pick – College Football Week 6: The Auburn Tigers are coming off a disappointing road loss to SEC and eastern division foe Georgia Bulldogs last week. They must be entirely focused to avoid underestimating the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers are priced as 13.5-point home favorites with a posted total of 47 points for this game.
|College Football Betting||Arkansas||Auburn|
|Best ATS Line||+14.5 (-120)||-13.5 (-114)|
|Total||Over 44.5 (-110)||Under 45.5 (-110)|
|Where/When||Jordan-Hare Stadium||Oct 10th, 4:00 PM EST|
The Razorbacks had been 2-24 straight-up in games facing SEC conference foes since 2017. Last week’s 21-14 win at Mississippi State as a 17-point underdog ended a 20-game consecutive losing streak in SEC competition. During these 26 games stretch, the Razorbacks posted a 13-12-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record, and the ‘UNDER’ went 15-11 for 58% winning bets. Moreover, the last time the Razorbacks won two consecutive games facing SEC foes was back in Week 11 of the 2015 season when they defeated LSU 31-14 as 7-point underdogs.
Team Statistical Comparisons in the SEC
In the SEC, the Tigers rank 12th of the 14 teams averaging 205 passing yards-per-game and a below-average 55.2% completion rate. The Razorbacks rank one better at 11th in the SEC, averaging 207.5 yards-per-game and completing 59.7% of their pass attempts. The Tigers ranked 13th gaining a paltry 6.5 rushing yards-per-game. Again, the Razorbacks rank one better at 12th, averaging 70 rushing yards-per-game.
The total offensive yards gained performance measure produce comparable results. The Tigers rank 12th in total offense gaining 270 yards-per-game and just 4.5 yards-per-play. Similarly, the Razorbacks rank 11th averaging 277.5 total offensive yards-per-game and rank 13th averaging only 4.2 yards-per-play.
On defense, the Tigers show well, ranking third in the SEC, allowing 20-point- per-game, allowing a total of two passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns against formidable ranked opponents. The Razorbacks rank 5th in scoring defense in the SEC, allowing 25.5 points-per-game, including three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. Based on the major stats, these teams have attained comparable results, but keep in mind this is only a 2-game sample size.
What is Wrong with the Tigers Offense?
The Tigers offense is off to a rough start, and quarterback Bo Coaching expectations were high for Nix to contribute in a much bigger way in his sophomore season. Through two games, he’s completed a terrible 55% of his 67 pass attempts for 410 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception and a below-average 118.4 quarterback rating.
Nix is also the team-high in rushing attempts with 16 and second-high in rushing yards gained with 42 yards. Unless a team runs the wishbone, triple option, or read-option scheme, it is not a positive result when the quarterback is a significant factor in the ground game.
The Tigers offense needs to establish play-action pass during the first quarter in this matchup against the Razorbacks. Play action pass plays will force the Razorback linebackers to respect the ground attack first and foremost. As a result, quarterback Bo Nix more time to scan the field and look for his top receivers in Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams, among others. Once the linebackers increase their depth from the line of scrimmage, the Tigers ground attack will be quite effective in the second half.
A First Half Betting System
Here is a first-half betting system that supports the Tigers and has earned a 28 7 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 80% winning tickets over the last five seasons. The requirements for this betting system are to bet on favorites of 6 to 11.5-points in using the first-half line in a game between conference foes with the favorite coming off a blowout loss of 21 or more points to a conference rival. This first-half college football betting system has gone 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last three seasons.
Arkansas vs Auburn Pick:
The machine learning models project that the Tigers will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games in which the Tigers scored 28 or more points in home games, they have achieved a remarkable 41-1 SU record for 98% wins, 25-15-2 ATS for 63% winning bets since 2011.
When the home games have been against an SEC conference foe results in a 17-1 SU for 95% wins, 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ posting a record of 13-5 for 72% winning bets since 2011. Take the Auburn Tigers using the first-half line of -6.5-points and the game line currently priced at -12.5-points.